MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Germany prevents the monetary expansion in the country (and within the rest of the euro zone) by controlling the ECB. If the central bank had the minimal amount of money necessary for the area, all of it would go to Germans, who would spend more, thus accelerating the recovery of their European partners.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | In a surprise move, the ECB cut the refi rate by 25bp to 0.25% and left the deposit rate unchanged at zero. It also extended its fixed-rate, full-allotment facility to all refinancing operations by one year, at least until mid 2015. The ECB clearly signalled that it is concerned about persistently low inflation, even if deflation risks are contained. We will only know more about how long the ECB thinks low inflation will last next month when it publishes its macroeconomic forecasts. We see euro area inflation in 2014 dropping to 1.0% from the forecast 1.4% this year.
THE CORNER TEAM | Put the champagne in the freezer. Against most expectations, the ECB lowered its main refinancing rate to 0.25 percent on Thursday in order to encourage the eurozone’s recovery. Mario Draghi took this measure responding to a slump in inflation that has sparked fears the economy could stall, years after financial crisis broke and years after most other central banks did the same thing.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Disinflationary pressures and significant monetary tightening in the euro area suggest ECB action sooner rather than later. In our view, the probability of an easing at the ECB’s December meeting has increased and will likely be priced-in through a lower EUR heading into the meeting and beyond.
MADRID | By J. Luis Martín via TRUMAN | In the winter of 2009, lawyer, investment banker, and advisor on capital markets to the Director of National Intelligence and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, James Rickards took part in a secret war game sponsored by the Pentagon at the Applied Physics Laboratory (APL). The game’s objective was to simulate and explore the potential outcomes and effects of a global financial war. Two years later, Rickards published what would become a national bestseller, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis. TRUMAN spoke to him after he just finished writing its sequel, The Death of Money, The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System, due out in bookstores in April 2014.
MADRID | By Tania Suárez | After 38 months of consecutive losses, the Spanish Retail Trade Index increased by 2.2% on September as compared with September 2012. There is increasing evidence of a slight recovery in consumption, which opens the door of hope to merchants and tradesmen.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | Friday evening Christina Romer gave the Sumerlin Lecture at Johns Hopkins University. The lecture was called “Monetary Policy in the Post-Crisis World: Lessons Learned and Strategies for the Future.” She touches on many bases, some suspect, like when she says “Financial stability is job number one of any central bank. Without that-nothing else matters”. Saying “Nominal stability” would have been closer to the thruth.
SAO PAULO | Bu Marcus Nunes | What Japan needs to do is keep doing what Abenomics said it would. Since their explicit target is 2% inflation, they will have to ‘factor out’ the tax increase. In the past they didn’t and we know what happened. If the BoJ’s Kuroda does his job well Japan has a fighting chance to progress, and the median calculation of economists that expect a short-term contraction following the tax will not pan out.
THE CORNER TEAM | Because an image is worth more than 1,000 words, we are reposting here a fantastic idea by Quartz: they’ve put together 19 graphs of the global economic recovery, from the adjustments that the most crippled euro zone countries are making to Japan leaving deflation behind. Chill out, things are getting better… and it’s Friday.
NEW YORK | By Ana Fuentes | For the IMF, it’s time for Europe’s fiscal union. Unless the 17 members of the euro zone are willing to lose some control over their budgets in favor of an insurance program and do common borrowing, bailout crisis like Cyprus’ are likely to cripple them, the Washington-based fund’s said in a report.