Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | Stanford luminary and economist John Cochrane is touting the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL), in which the anticipated future of federal budget primary (operating) deficits is the key tell in present-day inflation. If the national budget looks re-inky, then inflation will result.
BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research | Ahead of today’s ECB meeting, we think the focus will need to be on QE, which we expect to be extended until September 2017 and accelerated by € 10bn/month. We also expect the ECB to make QE more credible
Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | Westerners love to hazard guesses on China and that is what they are, guesses. Even a Mandarin speaker in Hong Kong (with whom I recently conversed), with family on the mainland and employed at a large private-equity fund, professes no special insights into opaque China. But China’s central bank, The People’s Bank of China, appears to have eschewed the advice of Western central bankers, and gunned the money presses this summer. Moreover, the PBoC tactic looks to be working.
Expectations for Draghi’s second QE programme were running so high that, in the end, he disappointed the markets. Investors had bet on more aggressive stimuli, so the European stock exchanges tumbled over 3% at the close (having been in positive territory mid-morning). The euro jumped to over 1,09 dollars (its biggest rise since March) and European debt registered its largest increase so far this year.
By Manos Giakoumis at MacroPolis | Following the European Central Bank’s governing council meeting on Thursday, Mario Draghi provided more detail about issues relating to the eligibility of Greek government bonds (GGBs) for the Quantitative Easing (QE) programme and reinstating the waiver on Greek government securities for ECB funding.
MADRID | June 3, 2015 | So far, monetary policy stimulus is working as planned, ECB’s president Mario Draghi insisted on Wednesday, and the bond buying program needs to reach full implementation until September 2016. The central lender rules out any earlier taper and will keep rates on hold.
LONDON | June 3, 2015 | UBS | The fact that the Eurozone’s headline inflation pick-up was related not just to headline HICP but also to core inflation will be acknowledged positively by President Draghi in today’s press conference. Yet, the ECB will be careful not to deviate from the message it has given in recent months.
BNP Paribas | June 4, 2015 | In many respects the Japanese QE experience since 2013 is a pretty good playbook for European equities.
The Corner | April 30, 2015 | For BNP Paribas analysts Mario Draghi will find it increasingly difficult over the next few months to execute its planned EUR45bn monthly purchases of sovereign bonds.
MADRID | April 9, 2015 | By Francisco López | The flurry of good news on the Spanish economy in an election year should be treated with caution. This week the Spanish Treasury placed Treasury letters at negative yields for the first time ever. However it should also be noted that half a dozen European countries have reached this level already and that the driving force behind the historical lows is undoubtedly the ECB’s QE programme.