Political uncertainty about the Brexit procedure caused the United Kingdom’s (UK’s) gross domestic product (GDP) to stagnate in the fourth quarter of 2019. However, the strong decrease in political uncertainty since the 12 December parliamentary election should allow the UK economy to rebound back to growth during the first quarter of this year, explains Janwillem Acket, chief economist at Julius Baer.
If the Conservatives return to power with a large majority in the UK elections, UBP analysts anticipate the new government will engage in a large scale fiscal stimulus and UK assets will experience a relief rally.
DWS | In the face of persistent commercial tensions, the atmosphere in boardrooms has deteriorated much more than in homes.
Ann-Katrin Petersen, investment strategist at Allianz Global Investor | The more uncertain the UK political environment, the weaker the GBP, and vice versa. A structural appreciation of GBP, which we deem to be undervalued, necessitates more clarity and a benign decision in the Brexit discussion.
Three years on from its vote on EU membership and the UK still has little idea what its future relationship with the EU might turn out to be. Under pressure from europhile members of her cabinet, Theresa May has finally decided that running the Brexit clock down is in nobody’s interest. Instead, she has now taken the perhaps equally disappointing decision to kick the Brexit can further down the road, if politically necessary.