China growth

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China growth 3% in 2022, lowest since 1970s, while population falls for first time in 6 decades

Banca March | The weakness of China’s growth in the latter part of last year was confirmed yesterday. China’s GDP stagnated in Q4 2022, registering zero growth compared to the previous quarter, bringing cumulative growth in 2022 to +3% year-on-year, the second lowest annual growth since 1970. Despite this, it is worth noting that the 4Q growth figure was higher than expected (a contraction of more than 1% quarter-on-quarter was…


Xi Jinping's gives clues to China’s future economic policy

China’s Party Congress: doubling down on the direction of travel

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | After months of preparation and concerning sentiment stemming from a deteriorating external environment, Covid-related restrictions and the plummeting real estate sector, the Communist Party’s 20th Congress has started with President Xi Jinping delivering the work report. Below are some key take-aways: 1. Dynamic zero Covid policies remain in place, sealed by the success in saving lives during the past few years. No clear exit strategy has been…


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Q4 GDP Enough To Set China’s 2021 Growth Above The 8% Benchmark But With Challenges Ahead For 2022

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Chinese economy has rebounded by 8.1% in 2021 after slumping to 2.2% in 2020. While the Q4 year-on-year growth rate was lowered to only 4%, the current growth momentum was still positive as the QoQ growth rate (seasonally adjusted) have accelerated to 1.6% in Q4 from 0.7% in Q3. However, there are signs that the Chinese economy is facing increasing challenges, raising questions on whether…


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What else China can do to support growth in the short term?

Alicia García-Herrero (Natixis) | Out of the key reasons for the cyclical slowdown in 2018, namely the worsening sentiment due to the US-China trade war and the rapid shadow banking crackdown, the former can be considered as an external shock but the latter is self-inflicted.



China Silk Road 02

‘One belt, one road’ and how China aims to lead trade between Asia and Europe

Iris Mir | China aims to recover the ancient Silk Road to create an unprecedented trade link between Asia and Europe. Least developed Chinese provinces would also benefit largely from the ‘one belt, one road’ project as Beijing will need to invest greatly in infrastructure and high-speed railways. Local governments see the project as a golden opportunity to revive stagnating growth.



No Picture

China’s growing private sector

By Richard N. Cooper via Caixin | There is a widespread impression both inside China and out that after the vigorous economic reforms of the 1980s and 1990s, moving away from central planning and state control to greater emphasis on markets, the reform process stopped, or even reversed, during the 2002-2012 period. This view was perhaps reinforced by the emphasis in the third plenum of the Communist Party’s 18th Central Committee in November 2013 on the need to move further toward less guidance from the state and greater reliance on market prices to allocate resources.


China Picking the Low Hanging Fruit of Reform

China: Omnipresent Scarcity

China is reaching a crucial point in which both the Communist Party and the citizens must define what they want to be and in which direction they want to move. The human costs of three decades of rampant growth are huge and the country is facing pressing challenges such as environmental pollution, deep social inequalities and weak employment opportunities. It may be time for China to start figuring out the puzzle of allocating resources in a country of 1.3 billion people.


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China: Eyes on the Prize

BEIJING | By Andy Xie via Caixin | Poor economic data in China will make the short-sighted howl, but policymakers know it is really a sign of rebalancing – and raising per capita incomes.