chinese economy

An exterior view of China Evergrande Centre in Hong Kong

Evergrande Is Not Lehman

Intermoney | A slightly higher opening (Eurostoxx futures +0.3%) after yesterday’s 2% falls in the main American and European indices, with the Ibex registering a better relative performance, buoyed by the tourism and defensive sectors. This environment of greater risk aversion and fears about economic growth also translated into additional moderation of IRRs. In the case of Europe, this was also supported by the statements from Villeroy, the governor of…

china lantern

Chinese Economy, Priorities For 2021

Morgan Stanley | With growth already at pre-Covid levels, China has announced its priorities: a gradual exit from stimulus, internalisation of the yuan and reduction of carbon emissions. These are  some of our predictions: Foreign Exchange reserves of $3,190 bn (vs $ 3,178 bn in November 2020; Headline inflation from -0.5% to 0% and a credit growth down 0.1% to 13.6%. Furthermore, we estimate that the deficit will fall to 12% of GDP, after reaching a record high of 15.4% in 2020. But still above 9.9% in 2019. 



China's one belt, one road initiative

Asian Supply Chains Recover

Fidelity | Our analysts report that activity in Asia’s extensive network of factories, ports and logistics centres is accelerating as the Chinese economy leaves the blockade behind. Dockside cranes are once again squeaking in some of Asia’s largest ports as production at Chinese factories progressively speeds up, after several weeks of coronavirus-related disruptions.

Equities vs bonds: buy real returns

The Market after the Summer: The Emerging Epicentre of a Crisis

I. de la Torre and L. Torralba (Arcano Partners) | The economist Dornbusch says that “crises take long to arrive than you can possibly imagine, but when they do come, they happen faster than you can possibly imagine”. The events that have affected the emerging countries this summer have proven Dornbusch was right.


What Macroeconomists Are Missing

Andrew Sheng via Caixin | There are two main lessons that we can draw from the 2007 to 2009 global financial crisis: the failure of mainstream economics to predict and solve the crisis, and its inability to explain the rise of the Chinese economy

china IMF

Amidst Concerns Over High Debt, China Promises To Do Its Homework

Christine Lagarde’s two-day-visit to China concluded on Monday without any specific agreements on how Beijing will fend off financial risk. But Premier Li Keqiang insisted that they will use all the tools available. Trillions of renminbi of debt have built up in the Chinese economy as a result of decades of stimulus and easy credit.

china drags

China Drags The Markets Down

Hopes for a soft landing in the Chinese economy are fading away. Focus sharpens on renminbi as it dips to increasingly low levels, challenging Central Bank’s massive interventions. China still commands sweeping foreign reserves but, over the latest months, they have shrunk by nearly one trillion dollars. Markets fear they could meltdown forcing a massive depreciation.

China FabricaTC

La Cina è vicina (China is Near)

Marco Bellochio was probably unaware of how close China could become when he directed his famous movie portraying a rotten Western society besieged by Mao’s revolutionary thrust. History eventually proved that the Little Red Book had less enduring success than the Holy Bible…