chinese economy

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PBoC delivered asymmetric rate cuts, what’s next?

By Jian Chang (Barclays) | The PBoC announced after the market close on Friday it was lowering the benchmark interest rates, effective 22 November 2014. The cut will be asymmetric, with the 1y lending rate down by 40bp to 5.6% and the 1y deposit rate down by 25bp to 2.75% (Figures 1 and 2). Meanwhile, the central bank further advanced its interest rate liberalization agenda. Banks can offer deposit rates at 20% above the benchmark rate, up from 10% currently (the upward flexibility was first introduced in June 2012, also along with a 25bp cut in the deposit rate). The bank also removed the benchmark guidance for the 5y savings rate.

China: How a soft landing feels

BEIJING | By Michael Gavin (Barclays) | There are many reasons to be interested in the slowdown of the Chinese economy. Here, we focus on the potential implications for advanced manufacturing economies. They are not the ones with the most to lose in a slowdown; that distinction very likely belongs to commodity exporters. But China’s systemic significance is such that no economy is likely to remain utterly unscathed by a cyclical event there. The question is how scathed major economies will be, and the answer is of some considerable interest for investors, if only because they comprise such a large share of the world’s financial assets.

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Progress in fiscal reform is key to transforming China

BEIJING | Via Caixin | Changes to China’s tax and fiscal framework have become the vanguard for the “deep and comprehensive” reforms the country has pledged in an effort to overhaul its economy and society. On June 30, the Communist Party’s top leaders endorsed a slate of tax and fiscal reform measures to be put in place by 2016, so a modern tax system could be up and running by 2020. In August, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee adopted the revised Budget Law.

“Globalisation is Southern Europe’s source of agony”

MADRID | By Ana Fuentes | Trying to compete with emerging markets is not enough: Those EU countries trying to re-launch their industrial sectors in order to boost  economic recovery need to go through technological changes, Yao Yang explains to The Corner. Dean of the China National School of Development and Director of the China Center for Economic Research, he believes that austerity in Europe has not been in vain. On the same day, business-research group Conference Board reported that Chinese growth will dip to 5.5% in 2015-19, Prof. Yang points out that such a decline would not mean any catastrophe. 

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China PMI fails to inspire

LONDON | By Christian Keller at Barclays | China’s official manufacturing PMI was flat at 51.1in September, slightly below Barclays’ forecast (51.3), but marginally above consensus of 51.0. The data reaffirmed the trend of improving external demand, but soft domestic demand. The China PMI data had a limited market impact, with local markets closed for National Day while AUD fell following the weak sales outcome.