ECB measures

Eurozones inflation ceilingTC

From The Bottom Of The Core

BofAML | We have been among the most bearish on Euro Area inflation, expecting 0.9% post-Brexit inflation in 2017, versus consensus at 1.3%. This also applies to core inflation, where we expect a very mild trend over the next two years that would leave core inflation slightly above 1% by 2018. Still, markets are pricing declining inflation over the next few years.

swiss franc

SNB relieved From Pressure On Negative Rates Thanks to ECB

UBS | The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reassessed its monetary stance at its quarterly March meeting today. After the European Central Bank (ECB) a week ago lowered its negative deposit rate for bank reserves by only 10 basis points to -0.40% and the main refinancing rate by 5 basis points to 0.00%, it became clear that the negative interest rate differential disfavouring the franc would not erode significantly.


Will The ECB’s Commitment Be Enough To Stop Punishment From The Markets?

The ECB has committed to reviewing its monetary policy at its March meeting, leaving the door open to implementing any (monetary) instruments  it has at its disposal. Thus the central bank is acknowledging the increasing downside risks and the deterioration in inflation, failing to meet end-2015 expectations and discounting low or even  negative CPI rates in the European Monetary Union over the coming months. But the question now is whether its commitment will satisfy the markets.


Eurozone Recovery: The ECB, EIB And The Large Companies’ Role

The market has already discounted that the ECB will announce new stimulus measures on December 3rd, modifying the current debt purchasing programme. But monetary policy only goes so far, and apart from the central bank’s measures, the Eurozone needs more public and private investment to recover its growth potential.

low pricesTC

What To Do As Inflation Turns Negative Again?

Estimations for the Eurozone’s inflation in September have been met: prices turned negative again after six months above zero. Some analysts think this time “the ball in not in the ECB’s court”.