ECB rates

Interviews 16th June 2022

“The Rise In Inflation Is Largely Due To Speculation. The ECB Will Not Be Able To Stop It By Raising Rates”

Lidia Conde (Francfort) | explains Marcel Fratzscher, president of the DIW (Berlin Institute for Economic Research) who headed the ECB’s International Economic Policy Analysis Department in 2008-2013. In an interview to be published in this month’s issue of Consejeros magazine, Fratzscher explains that “The ECB is habdicapped because it cannot tacle the problem by raising rates, neither this year nor the next”, which is why “I am not in favour…

European economy 28th February 2020

The Cost Of Negative Rates: The Case Of The Riksbank

Caixabank Research | The experience of the Riksbank highlights the doubts over negative interest rates: despite a worsening economic outlook for Sweden, it raised the interest rate from –0.25% to 0% in December and abandoned its policy of negative rates.

Which central bank blinks and cut rates first?

World economy 13th February 2020

Which Central Bank Blinks And Cuts Rates First?

TwentyFour Asset Management’s CEO Mark Holman thinks central banks will move on rates any time soon, but where the first move comes from might be harder to call. They are sure it will not be the UK, thank goodness and also sure it won’t be the ECB. It won’t be the US in the near future either.

In Europe 13th September 2019

Draghi leaves an outstanding heritage

J. P. Marín-Arrese | Against all odds, Draghi has secured consensus over his stimuli package by a cunny trade-off between the subdued intensity of individual measures in exchange of ample coverage. His brilliant brinkmanship as Chair of the ECB facilitates the task of his successor as Ms Lagarde can wait-and-see comfortably cushioned by a strong and comprehensive arsenal relieving her of the need to change course for many months to come.

In Europe 22nd July 2019

The ECB poised to loosen money conditions

JP Marín-Arrese | Christine Lagarde’s nomination ensures the ECB will fully preserve Draghi’s heritage. It will certainly deliver a substantive loosening in monetary policy over the coming months. Everyone expects the first move to materialise this week, probably a rate cut. Anything short of a clear message in the coming press conference would deeply disappoint the markets. Whatever happens next Thursday, more robust action will materialise before the year close.

In Europe 13th April 2019

ECB review: never say never

BofA Merrill Lynch | Our base case remains: if data stabilises, the ECB will be keen on hiking at the end of this year. But our conviction level is low (and declining) – similar to the ECB’s. The alternative, we argued, would be no hike this year, a long extension of forward guidance beyond market pricing and tiering.

In Europe 30th March 2019

European banks could reduce the bill of 7 billion euros for the excess cash in the ECB deposit account

Intermoney | The president of the ECB opened the door to further stimulus if the economic and inflation perspectives in the Eurozone remain low, in the shadow of a scenario dominated by downside risks for activity. In fact, he recalled that “there is no lack of instruments” to fulfill his mandate, at the same time as he is contemplating new delays in raising interest rates. Textually he said: “we are assured that monetary policy continues to accompany the economy, adjusting our orientation on interest rates to reflect the new inflation perspectives”.

In Europe 22nd March 2017

The Peripheral Countries’ Debt Moves To The Political Beat

The Eurozone is showing positive signs of growth and inflation. But the risk premium levels of the peripheral countries are still very high compared with those at the start of this year. In the short-term, they will move to the political beat, particularly any news on the French election.

Fed set to accelerate normalisation process

World economy 16th March 2017

Fed vs ECB: Rates Gradually Rising In US As Markets Increase Them In The EU

J. L. M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The Fed raised rates yesterday, basically reducing the expansive nature of monetary policy. After listening to ECB board member Praet’s at a G20 meeting, it doesn’t look as if the ECB will raise rates quickly. But conditions could present themselves which favour a change in bias in monetary policy.

Markets 10th March 2017

Markets Welcome Draghi’s Predictability

Once again Mario Draghi followed the expected script: it kept interest rates at 0%, where they have been for the last year; it left the deposit facility unchanged at -0.4% and did not modify the debt purchasing programme.