MADRID | April 26, 2015 | By Luis Arroyo | After effusively congratulating the progress of the Spanish economy in his last press conference, Draghi said that some labor reforms are missing. Let’s connect the dots: the ECB’s president is attributing himself the merit of recovery with his expansionary monetary policy, while the demerit that this is not stronger is attributed to Madrid, which is not undertaking enough reforms.
LONDON | April 21, 2015 | Barclays | The ECB remains committed to deliver its QE target of a more than €1.1trn balance sheet expansion through asset purchases and sought to dispel fears over asset scarcity.
The Corner | April 14, 2015 | On Wednesday’s press conference, Mario Draghi is likely to indicate that ECB QE has got off to a good start operationally and price action terms in the market. Barclays analysts think cautious near-term trading is required in EGB spreads, given poor liquidity and lingering Greek worries.
Asoka Wöhrmann (Deutsche AWM) | Negative interest rates are new economic territory. However, as yet, there is no sign of a major cash exodus to avoid sub-zero yields.
The Corner | March 5, 2015 | Whatever it takes, don’t miss the mechanics of the European Central Bank’s next purchase programme starting on Monday.
MADRID | The Corner | All markets eyes are set on the ECB’s second offer of cheap four-year loans (TLTRO), which will take place next Thursday and are aimed to revive the eurozone’s battered economy and try to boost lending to SMEs. As a matter of fact, this second round will be important as any decision about launching a QE program will be influenced by how the banks respond to Thursday’s liquidity open bar.
MADRID | By JP Marín Arrese | Markets took Mario Draghi´s encouraging promises at face value a couple of weeks ago. However yesterday’s ECB Council meeting failed to endorse any move to bolster the QE strategy. Super-Mario was only able to renew the central bank´s firm commitment to act should economic prospects markedly deteriorate. Investors felt utterly upset and reacted accordingly.
Guest Post by Thomas Harjes and Fabio Fois (Barclays) | Despite the softer November inflation print and some likely downward revisions in the ECB’s inflation and growth outlook next week, we do not expect the ECB to announce further policy easing when the Governing Council meets on Thursday, 4 December. We believe the ECB is going to wait at least another month.
MADRID | The Corner | Inflation in the eurozone is not picking up. Expectations aren’t either. And the ECB’s balance sheet expansion is almost inexistent. PMI indicators (which the central bank is closely watching) are trending downwards. In this context, Barclays analysts comment, it is not strange that markets are expecting more QE from the Frankfurt. But when? Probably not this week.
MADRID | The Corner | Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the Euro-zone’s crucial CPI data. As happened yesterday with Spanish and German data, consumer prices are expected to do down in November, due to an energy prices drop. Will the European Central Bank feel any pressure to act? Then bad news could turn a blessing for financial markets.