Juan Pedro Marín-Arrese | From the start the new Spanish government has voiced its staunch pro-European stance. A most welcome move when other core countries drift apart, either through complete withdrawal like the UK or proving a real nuisance like Italy. Not to mention some Eastern Member States waging an open rebellion by snubbing key democratic principles enshrined in the Union Treaty.
The ECB could first check how the market reacts to the actual halving of its purchases in January, and how the run-up to the Italian elections shape up, before changing its message.
James Alexander | It’s been lonely blogging that the Euro Area economy was not nearly as bad as consensus reckons, even consensus amongst our fellow Market Monetarists. But the data has consistently shown Euro Area NGDP growth doing better, and at least as good as the long-term average.
James Alexander via Historinhas | I remain a bit disappointed that Euro Area QE and negative rates are not proving more of a hit with the markets and thus the economy. But are things really as bad as painted by our friend Lars Christensen?
LONDON | June 3, 2015 | UBS | The fact that the Eurozone’s headline inflation pick-up was related not just to headline HICP but also to core inflation will be acknowledged positively by President Draghi in today’s press conference. Yet, the ECB will be careful not to deviate from the message it has given in recent months.
MADRID | May 14, 2015 | BNP Paribas | Net issuance of sovereign bonds will exceed ECB purchases in May by c.EUR50bn. We believe this is why yields are going up. We also believe this is why they will come down again from June when ECB QE will again significantly outpace sovereign bond issuances (by c. EUR8bn in June and EUR90bn in July)
MADRID | May 7, 2015 | By Luis Arroyo | Credit lending to the private sector (households and companies) continued to fall in March, according to the Bank of Spain. So as a matter of fact there is more lending activity in the country, yet the money is going to the public sector.
The Corner | April 30, 2015 | For BNP Paribas analysts Mario Draghi will find it increasingly difficult over the next few months to execute its planned EUR45bn monthly purchases of sovereign bonds.
LONDON | April 21, 2015 | Barclays | The ECB remains committed to deliver its QE target of a more than €1.1trn balance sheet expansion through asset purchases and sought to dispel fears over asset scarcity.