eurozone

European economy, Relevant News Item 14th February 2023

European Commission upgrades forecasts but inverted German debt curve points to recession

The European Commission has raised its 2023 growth forecast to 0.9% vs 0.3% and lowered its inflation forecast from 6.1% to 5.65% for this year. The note highlights that domestic demand could turn out to be stronger than expected if the recent declines in wholesale gas prices are passed through to consumer prices more strongly, which we doubt, and consumption proves more resilient. In fact, this has had little reaction…

World economy 1st February 2023

Eurozone GDP rises 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in 4Q22 and 3.5% for whole of 2022

Singular Bank: In Q4, according to Eurostat, the euro zone’s GDP rebounded 0.1% from the previous quarter (vs. +0.3% in Q3). In year-on-year terms, output in the eurozone rose by 1.9%, compared with 2.3% in the previous quarter. Thus, in 2022 as a whole, GDP increased by 3.5% compared with 2021. By countries, France’s GDP in Q4, according to the Insee, registered a slight increase of +0.1% vs. the previous…

European economy 27th January 2023

Good European data bolster hopes of avoiding recession

Portocolom AV | The US index of leading indicators, which hit a new low on Monday 23rd, seems to indicate that the US economy will enter recession in 2023. This indicator, which includes key economic data with the aim of predicting the rate of growth, has historically had a very high success rate in anticipating recessions. This has been the case in previous crises, such as the Covid-19 crisis, the…

European economy 26th January 2023

Could the worst slump in UK services PMIs in two years be a leading indicator for the Eurozone?

Santander Corporate & Research | The worst slump in UK services PMIs in two years, since the 2021 confinements, puts a clear question mark over the sustainability of an expected EZ economic recovery that explains the good momentum in credit markets. True, with these PMIs already above 50pt for the first time since June and the third consecutive month of improvement, our economists believe that the EZ may be able…

European economy, In Europe 25th January 2023

Eurozone activity returns to growth: composite PMI stands at 50.2 in January

CdM: This is what the PMI index data released on Tuesday by S&P Global shows. “Eurozone business activity increased slightly in the first month of 2023, signalling a hesitant return to growth after six consecutive months of decline.” Specifically, the Flash Eurozone Total Activity Composite PMI Index came in at 50.2 (49.3 in December), registering a seven-month high. This figure indicates “the first – albeit only modest – expansion in…

European economy, European politics 4th January 2023

Croatia introduces euro, Hrvatska narodna banka joins Eurosystem

The euro has entered into circulation in Croatia today, bringing the number of European Union (EU) Member States using the single European currency to 20. With Croatia’s accession to the euro area, Hrvatska narodna banka, the country’s national central bank, becomes a member of the Eurosystem. The central banking system of the euro area consists of the ECB and the national central banks of the countries whose currency is the…

European economy 31st October 2022

There is No Sign of Respite in Inflation Data In Europe

German inflation in October was 11.6%, well above expectations, Italian inflation was 12.8% and French inflation was 7.1%, all higher than expected and higher than last month. The components will be released mid-month, but some regional figures in Germany show that the big contributors to price increases continue to be energy costs and food. In Spain, inflation slowed yr-on-yr in October to 7.3% on lower electricity, gas prices. Also, in…

European economy 7th October 2022

Calls Are Growing For A European Fiscal Programme

Santander | Calls are growing for a European fiscal programme. Financed by joint SURE-style emissions guaranteed by member states. In this case, to combat the energy and security crisis as proposed in their open letter by EC Commissioners for Economy and Home Affairs Gentiloni and Breton last Monday. Yesterday it was the turn of Von der Leyen, who called for the EU to seek other sources of funding to accelerate…

European economy 6th September 2022

Inflation Expectations Not Yet Decoupled From The Official ECB

Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | High inflation is the current hot economic topic. In June, inflation was running at over 11% in the Netherlands1; for the eurozone it was nearly 9%, which is surely a record. It is also sure that the inflationary bite is being felt, particularly in the purchasing power of lower income groups. The question is, how long will this high inflation last? In recent months, energy…

Relevant News Item 1st August 2022

Eurozone Economy Is Slowing Down

Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | The eurozone is struggling with a strong divergence between a weak industrial sector plagued by supply bottlenecks, higher input costs and weakening sentiment on the one hand, and a solid services sector, which is experiencing a post-Covid rebound. We expect 2.9% GDP growth in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023. Among major economies, 2022 GDP growth since our previous Economic Outlook in April has been downwardly…

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