Keith Wade (Schroeders) | Headline CPI inflation rose to 4.2% year-on-year in April the highest level since September 2008. Meanwhile the core measure, which strips out food and energy prices, rose to 3%, a level last seen in 2006. It is unlikely that the inflation figures will spook the Federal Reserve, although they will mean an upward revision to its forecasts. More importantly, when combined with strong growth in GDP, it will have to start to think about slowing its asset purchases.
Santander Corporate & Investment | The Fed does not expect the economy to fully recover until 2022 and expects GDP to fall by 6.5% and unemployment of 9.3% in 2020. The OECD also distances itself from V-shaped scenarios and warns of the worst peacetime recession in 100 years. In scenarios without second waves of Covid-19, the OECD anticipates a global contraction of 11.5% in H1’20 and neither does it expect world GDP to approach the pre-coronavirus level by end-2021.
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The increase in the size of the central banks’ balance sheet has without doubt been one of the untraditional measures of the financial crisis. But the president of the ECB has anticipated that probably at its next meeting in October a scheme will be worked out to progressively reduce the asset buying programme.
LONDON | By Jim McCormick at Barclays | Let’s explore how the start of Fed policy withdrawal will affect asset allocation. From Braclays, we do not see an early start to Fed tapering being especially disruptive for broader risk assets, and we’d expect US equity markets to be more vulnerable than most other risk assets.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | We now expect Fed to taper in March 2014. The September payroll report was on the soft side, with nonfarm payrolls rising 148k and private payrolls rising only 126k. These numbers were below our (200k) and consensus (180k) expectations for headline payroll growth. In light of the moderate tone of the September employment report, we have pushed out our expectation for the first Fed tapering in the pace of asset purchases to March 2014 from December 2013.
NEW YORK | By Ana Fuentes | Barack Obama will give six interviews to U.S. media this Monday to build public support about an intervention in Syria. The White House is using its lobbying skills to make a case for an action that for some analysts could compromise the last good economic data.