Fed’s monetary policy

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Fed Signals Faster Tapering In 2023 But Under-Delivers On Next Year’s Dot Plot

Simon Harvey (Monex Europe) | While every sell-side analyst didn’t expect the FOMC dot plot to signal a rate hike in 2022, markets had other thoughts. While two members shifted their expectations to move the median dot plot to signal rates at 0.3% in 2022, this under-delivered in the eyes of rates markets. The price of eurodollar 2022 futures rose, in turn lowering the expected interest rate, while risk was…


chair powell

Unwinding QE More Difficult Than Expected

J.P. Marín Arrese | Jay Powell was crystal clear in Jackson Hole about his willingness to scale down QE starting by the year close. As the US economy is recovering at full steam and prices skyrocket to a 13-year record, the idea that  monetary policy will soon switch from the current over-loose stance to a more neutral one is hardly surprising. His message even sounded dovish as he cautioned against rushing into fighting inflation. He considered its current upsurge temporary, however, dismissing this upsurge might poise an…


The odds of a next rates hike by the Ded

The Odds On An Early Rate Hike

The outstanding labour market performance in the US has triggered widespread speculation of a Fed rate hike as early as September. Nonetheless, most new jobs are part-time, while the hourly wage increase lags well behind its pre-crisis pace.



Daniel Tarullo

Meet the most important man in the Fed

CANCUN (MEXICO) | A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away…” the Federal Reserve did not even announce its interest rate movements. Fed watchers had to infer the lending policy of the world’s most powerful central bank just by painstakingly perusing the documents–release, obviously, in paper–of the Fed’s open market operations.  

 

 

 


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Jeb Bush the populist

SAO PAULO | June 20, 2015 | By Marcus Nunes via HistorinhasUS 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate Jeb Bush has set his presidential goal at 4 percent growth and 19 million new jobs. To do that, he would first have to “recruit” the Fed. Unfortunately, if the Fed acquiesced bad things would happen.


Dove

Fed to stay dovish in new rates regime

The Corner | June 17, 2015 | The Federal Open Market Committee’s policy statement, due to be released today at 1800 GMT, is widely expected to signal a first rates’ hike in September. For the first time in eight years the outcome of the meeting is not constrained by the “forward guidance” commitment. Is the US economy healthy enough?




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FED shelves forward guidance

MADRID | April 9, 2015 | By JP Marín ArreseAs the recovery pace of the US economy softens, FED policy makers are growing increasingly reluctant to raise rates too early. The March FOMC minutes released yesterday reveal they could only agree on deleting “patience” when referring to the foreseen tightening of the monetary stance.  Members seem split on the timing, with many openly advocating postponing the move until the end of this year or even into 2016.