Intermoney | The increased scarcity of paper is prompting money funds to dump their excess liquidity in the reverse repo window, for which the Fed is offering 0.8%. In fact, demand for Fed reverse repurchase agreements reached new highs after 94 participants placed a total of $2,045 tr. As we have explained, the increased interest in reverse repo trading, which is usually an investment of last resort, has been exacerbated…
Juan Pedro Marín-Arrese | The hawkish and straightforward message Jerome Powell delivered yesterday surprised analysts and markets alike. They expected a non-committal press conference following a routine FOMC meeting. Instead, Powell unfolded the planned roadmap for monetary tightening. He even announced a rate hike in March, breaking the rule of refraining from providing precise tips on future action, coupled with a sharper than expected increase in federal funds rates. It…
Simon Harvey (Monex Europe) | While every sell-side analyst didn’t expect the FOMC dot plot to signal a rate hike in 2022, markets had other thoughts. While two members shifted their expectations to move the median dot plot to signal rates at 0.3% in 2022, this under-delivered in the eyes of rates markets. The price of eurodollar 2022 futures rose, in turn lowering the expected interest rate, while risk was…
Today, Monday 7 June, the Fed will start selling its positions in 16 corporate debt ETFs ($8.6 billion) as part of its decision to unwind $13.8 billion in ETFs and bonds under the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility before the end of the year. The turn for corporate bond sales will come after the summer, in both cases proceeding in a “gradual and orderly” manner.
SAO PAULO | Guest post by Benjamin Cole at Historinhas | No serious democrat contends that obscurantism, opacity and secrecy are handmaidens of good government. Indeed, closed doors are properly and universally regarded as cardinal sins, while transparency and accountability as gateways to working democracies. Yet the public is barred from meetings of the most powerful economic policymaking body in the United States—the Federal Open Market Committee, the decision-making body of the Federal Reserve Board, wherein monetary policy is decided.
Via Credit Suisse | Following the global financial crisis, major central banks have taken unprecedented policy actions in a bid to support the global economy and address short-term financial risks. In the following video, thought leaders from the Credit Suisse Research Institute discuss the use of these actions to attack crises, as well as the challenges associated with exiting these unconventional instruments in the coming years. [NOTE: The views expressed in this video are the interviewees’ own and do not necessarily reflect The Corner’s editorial policy].
MADRID | By Francisco López | The U.S. latest unemployment data, as well as the gold price collapse and the movements of the sovereign suggest the beginning of the gradual withdrawal of the assets purchase by the Federal Reserve may be imminent. However, stock markets are not just quite sure the Fed will decide to start tapering at its last meeting of the year, since some macro indicators show the recovery of the first economy of the planet is not strong enough.
MADRID | The Corner Team | Spain’s borrowing costs dropped at a double bond auction on Thursday after the U.S. Fed announced it will not start tapering yet. The 3-year bonds were sold at an average yield of 2.225%, compared with 2.636% seen at the previous auction. Madrid expects that this will leave some margin to offset possible negative deviations elsewhere or to better fulfill the country’s deficit target (6.5% for 2013).
By Barry Knapp (Barclays) | There is a key difference from the surprisingly low volatility Septembers in 2009-12. In that period, the Fed was either buying assets or had pre-announced a new program; this year, it is preparing to weaken the portfolio balance effect. In our view, for equities to overcome unfavorable seasonality and another round of fiscal concerns, fundamentals, which have been mediocre for over a year, due primarily to weakening global and soft domestic growth, will have to improve considerably.
BEIJING | By Hong Hao via Caixin Magazine | The answers to how the Fed’s tapering will impact the market seem a little too obvious: the consensus is that tapering will jolt market interest rates substantially higher and thus provide headwinds for the market. Further, there is the belief that given China’s closed capital accounts, tapering will be inconsequential for its markets. I beg to differ.