Assuming the pandemic comes to a gradual end, a robust recovery of investments, private consumption and exports output should lead to an economic rebound of almost 7.5% in 2021. Unemployment is expected to decrease again next year. However, besides a resurge of the pandemic, any deterioration of the Greek-Turkish relationship could hurt economic performance, especially within the tourism sector (e.g. if Turkey again opens the border for refugees to move on to Greece, or in case of rising military tensions and clashes in the Aegean Sea).
Dimitris Smyrnakis via Macropolis | Following January’s five-year bond issuance, which raised 2.5 billion, along with Moody’s upgrading the country’s sovereign credit rating to B3 from B1 and Fitch’s confirming its own rating at BB-, last Tuesday Greece issued its first 10-year bond since the country entered the debt crisis nine years ago.
At last, the Greek economy seems to be in a much more solid position. Greece once again saw positive growth rates in 2017 and it’s expected to maintain a growth rate of around 2% over the next two years. In spite of this, the financial sustainability of Greece’s public sector remains in doubt.
Greece enters a new year that could prove to be a watershed in its long and meandering traipse through three successive bailouts and faltering efforts to overcome the chronic weaknesses that contributed to one of the most damaging economic crises the developed world has seen.
Yiannis Mouzakis via Macropolis | Greece’s economic collapse in 2010-2013 has become legendary. The country had already been hit hard by the global financial crisis in 2009, when it posted a sharp GDP drop of -4.3 percent. This set the stage for what would become the deepest economic contraction of a developed country in history. But would the implementation of structural reforms have helped alleviate this situation?
MADRID | June 1, 2015 | By JP Marín Arrese | When Tsipras took over matters from Varoufakis a couple of weeks ago, observers were mildly optimistic about the prospect of Greece reaching a fair deal with its creditors. But yesterday’s remarks by the Hellenic PM on the ‘absurd’ demands filed by his counterparts has dealt a heavy blow to such hopes. The chances of broking an agreement are far away and there are increasing doubts over the ability to reach an understanding before it is too late.
ATHENS | May 23, 2015 | By Nick Malkoutzis via MacroPolis | A number of eyebrows were raised last week when an opinion poll suggested that former Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis, who oversaw Greece’s fiscal derailment between 2004 and 2009, is the most popular candidate to take over from Antonis Samaras as New Democracy leader.
ATHENS | May 11, 2015 | By Manos Giakoumis via MacroPolis | Recent Greek budget data showed the huge revenue gap of 968 million euros recorded in January narrowed to 389 million by the end of the first quarter (Q1) of 2015. At the same time, primary expenditure, which was just 53 million better than target in January, displayed a strong outperformance of 1.18 billion by the end of March.
ATHENS | April 8, 2015 | By Nick Malkoutzis via MacroPolis | Since it was first recorded in 1944 by American public administrator David Lilienthal, the following anecdote has been told many times and in many ways: A traveller asks a local man for directions and, after much thought, the latter turns to the visitor and says: “My friend, I tell you; if I were you, I wouldn’t start from here.” As Greece and the eurozone remain some distance apart on how to conclude their bailout negotiations, it seems a good time to return to this tale.