Caixabank Research | After a September full of announcements, the next ECB meeting (24 October) will be transitional, in one sense at least: 31 October will see the end of Mario Draghi´s mandate, the most charismatic president in the institution´s history.
J. P. Marín-Arrese | Against all odds, Draghi has secured consensus over his stimuli package by a cunny trade-off between the subdued intensity of individual measures in exchange of ample coverage. His brilliant brinkmanship as Chair of the ECB facilitates the task of his successor as Ms Lagarde can wait-and-see comfortably cushioned by a strong and comprehensive arsenal relieving her of the need to change course for many months to come.
Six years ago in London, Mario Draghi made the famous pledge that the ECB would do “whatever it takes” to maintain the unity of the Eurozone. This speech marked an important turning point in the crisis. For economists at DWS, “it is time to remember the hidden costs of saving the Eurozone.”
In Jackson Hole, the FED and ECB Chairs have voiced concern about US plans to unravel the Dodd-Frank financial regulation act, thus undermining overall stability.
There was a consensus in the market that the ECB will announce an extension of its current asset-purchase programme and so president Mario Draghi did it by expanding QE more than expected to December 2017. He also committed to do it even longer if needed.”The presence of the ECB on markets will be there for a long time,” he explained.
The financial web Bondvigilantes offers a precise review of the details of Mario Draghi’s magic words from four years ago: “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough”.
Francesco Saraceno | Last week the ECB published its Annual Report, that not surprisingly tells us that everything is fine. Quantitative easing is working just fine (this is why on March 10 the ECB took out the atomic bomb), confidence is resuming, and the recovery is under way. In other words, apparently, an official self congratulatory EU document with little interest but for the data it collects.
Francesco Saraceno | Mario Draghi had no choice. The increasingly precarious macroeconomic situation, deflation that stubbornly persists, and financial markets that happily cruise from one nervous breakdown to another, had cornered the ECB. It could not, it simply could not, risk to fall short of expectations as it had happened last December.
Mario Draghi surprised the markets with a bold move no one expected. That said, he openly conceded his margin for manoeuvre was running out. In a sincere confession few central bankers would indulge in, Draghi acknowledged there was little room for ECB’s extra rate cuts.
The ECB’s main priority will be to fuel confidence in the financial markets and inflation will be its alibi for this. In February, eurozone CPI receded to -0.2% year-on-year and, in the short term, the region should be prepared for negative rates to continue.