It will take three years for global oil demand to recover from Covid to its new normal assuming we have a vaccine or a cure. According to estimates from BoA Global Research, long term oil demand will peak at 105 million barrel/day by 2030 on electric car proliferation, and then decline to 95 mn bd by 2050. If heavy vehicles also switch to alternative fuel, electric or more likely hydrogen, demand could drop to 76 mnb/d by 2050.
Morgan Stanley | With oil up 30% YTD, fairly decent quarterly figures, dividends easily covered, with potential to grow and clearly above a market without upside, and with a process of positive profit revisions, we insist in dedicating half an hour to two ideas which are now being oversold and which have lost all they gained in Q1 and which their high dividend is clearly attractive in the market and which we believe could have returns of around 10% in the relatively short term.
Two observations in oil market deserve closer attention these days, says analyst Norbert Rücker, Head Commodity Research at Julius Baer: the US official weekly petroleum market report, and the increased geopolitical uncertainties coming from Kurdistan’s independence vote and the US pressure on the Iran nuclear deal.
UBS | We have updated our Upstream major project database. Further cuts to capital investment, responding both tactically to this year’s very low prices but also, increasingly, strategically to a changing market outlook, have contributed to another year of below-trend project development activity.
July 15, 2015 | UBS | Lifting sanctions would add more production to an already oversupplied market.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Although there is a train of thought that the sharp acceleration in US crude oil supply growth will sooner or later result in a turning point for oil prices and a possible price collapse, our analysis suggests 2014 is too early for that.