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Historic Drop In The Oil Price: How Will It Affect The Spanish Economy?

Caixabank Research | A fall in the price of oil provides a boost to the economy of countries that are net importers of crude oil, as is the case for Spain. Cheaper oil equates to an increase in the real disposable income of households, such that it also supports aggregate consumption. However, the health crisis that has gripped us following the COVID-19 outbreak will result in this boost derived from a lower oil price not being reflected in the economy, at least for the time being.


Oil Price Drives ‘Value gap’ To 2000 Tech Bubble Extreme

UBS | The distaste for value is back to the ‘growth love – in’ high of 2000. The valuation stretch between winners & losers (within a sector) has only been this high 4 times since 2000: 1) end of Tech bubble; 2) Mar 03 recession; 3) Mar 09 Financial crisis; and 4) Jul 12 ‘euro panic’.


The Interconnection Of Markets

The markets are connected via expectations. If there is a price change in one market, then this information is transmitted to other markets pricing in easily assimilated expectations within a similar time horizon. All consumer durables markets have an eye on the future. In other words, they have a financial component although the product which is trading on the market has an industrial use. For example, the oil and bond markets.

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Consumer confidence points to brighter times in EMU

The Corner | March 30, 2015 | Consumer confidence in the EMU is set to hit its highest level in eight years, with economic sentiment improving across the currency block. In Spain, inflation figures are expected to remain in negative territory, but with the caveat that lower prices are having positive knock-on effects elsewhere in the economy.

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Oil futures bet on a price below $70

MADRID | By Ana López-Varela | “The OPEC will not cut production even if the oil barrel drops to $20.” The intentions of the Saudi Oil Minister, Ali al Naimi, are stark. But, how will the OPEC’s decision of maintaining the production quota at 30 million barrel per day affect the markets? And which are the forecasts that market watchers have regarding the oil? In general, they expect the prices to increase. However, futures traders remain more conservative.