The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has substantially cut its growth expectations for the Spanish economy in 2021 and 2022, reducing the expected expansion of GDP this year to 4.6% from the 5.7% anticipated last October. For next year it forecasts that the rebound in activity will be limited to 5.8%, six tenths of a percentage point lower than previously expected. So the IMF’s forecasts are close to those recently published…
The governor of the Bank of Spain (BdE), Pablo Hernández de Cos, warned yesterday that the institution’s analysts will revise “significantly downwards” their forecasts for Spain’s economic growth this year. He did so during his speech before the Congressional Budget Committee, to offer his opinion on the draft General State Budget for 2022. Furthermore, Hernández de Cos said he believes that some revenues in the General Budget have been calculated…
BancaMarch | Brussels has upgraded Spain’s GDP growth forecast. The Commission’s new forecasts put Spain’s GDP growth at 5.9% in 2021 (5.6% previous estimate) and 6.8% in 2022 (5.3% previous estimate). So Spain would regain pre-pandemic GDP levels by end-next year. The improvement in the revision is a consequence of progress in vaccination and the disbursement of European funds, of which Spain is one of the major beneficiaries. To this…
T.C. | The Spanish economy will grow by 6.4% in 2021, making it the fastest growing European country, and one of the fastest growing in the world among the advanced economies, along with the United States, where growth is also estimated at 6.4%, according to the International Monetary Fund’s biannual ‘World Economic Outlook’ report, published yesterday.
The Spanish economy grew 0.4% in the second quarter, one tenth less than in the previous quarter and also a tenth less than advanced at the end of July. It is the lowest rate of quarterly growth in three years, according to the National Accounts published this Monday by the National Institute for Statistics (INE).
Philippe Waetcher (Ostrum AM – Natixis) | Spain has recovered strongly since 2013. Probably as a reaction to the deep fall of the Spanish economy in 2008 and after the 211-2012 period. This reaction explains the strong performance of the Spanish economy observed in recent years.
Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | The possibility of new elections in November is beginning to sound the alarm about the ability of Spanish political parties to form coalitions. The Spanish economy is an animal of great strength which, once set going, is resistant and difficult to stop. So said to me a few months ago a distinguished Spanish economist who presides over one of the most respected think tanks.
Banc Sabadell | The Spanish economy faces the second half of 2019 growing at relatively high rates (we expect 2.3% yoy in 2019 vs 1.0% for the Eurozone) but with a less favourable composition of growth.
Ana Fuentes | Spain and the US are the only developed countries which are going to grow more than 2% in 2019 according to the IMF. On the case of Spain, exports, which were driving the country’s growth, have weakened, but domestic demand has grown. The risk premium is just below 100 basis points, compared to Italy’s 250 b.p. But beyond the data, the analysis is currently conditioned by the effect of the electoral campaign.
S&P has reduced its estimate of GDP for the euro area by 5 tenths in 2019 from +1.6% in November to +1.1%. In 2020 it forecasts a growth of +1.4% (vs. +1.6% previous), +1.4% also in 2021 (vs +1.5% previous) and +1.3% in 2022.