Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | The figures of the Spanish economy were terrible in the second quarter. GDP plummeted by an outrageous 18.5% compared to the previous quarter, while the GDP of the euro area, despite suffering the biggest fall since reliable statistics have been available, fell considerably less, by 11.8%. And the loss of jobs in the same period was 7.5% in Spain compared to 2.9% in Europe.
Intermoney | There are important reasons for maintaining a prudent attitude with regard to the Spanish economy, situating its full recovery in the year 2023. This would mean that we would lose more than a decade of the fledgling 21st century. On the other hand, there are also reasons to hope the recovery will eventually take shape and not be too far off. These include the encouraging development of the COVID-19 vaccines, the decisive response from the ECB and the EU, and a lesser impact of the crisis than feared on large European partners and customers.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | Before the pandemic, the Spanish economy showed signs of weakness and exhaustion, which are now considered as pronounced. Spain needs a major modernisation operation to gain productivity, to generate stable employment and add value. And this is not being talked about much. Many decrees but no script, no basic project, no fine print. European funds are important, but knowing how to avoid wasting them, is even more important.
Link Securities | According to preliminary data from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (INE), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to -1% year-on-year in May (-0.7% in April). The drop reflected the decline in fuel and oil prices, while food prices continued to rise. May inflation has not seen a decline to -1% since 2016. We do not rule out that the entire Eurozone could end up heading into deflation over the coming months, at least those economies most penalized by the pandemic.
Intermoney | What is clear is that the finances of countries like Spain are only sustainable thanks to the ECB’s very important support. And also thanks to the EU’s action which is much better than in the previous crisis. If the German and French Recovery Plan, based on subsidies, is successful, Spain’s need for financing will be lower; in other words, Community transfers would help keep net financing well below the 130 billion euros target.
According to data released yesterday by the Bank of Spain, overall government debt reached 1.224, 243 trillion euros in March. It increased by 22.473 billion euros (+1.9%) from February due to the Covid-19 crisis. So public debt is now at an all-time high and equivalent to 98.3% of 2019 GDP. All organisations highlight in their forecasts that public debt will rise above 100% and set new historical records.
COVID-19 will result in a slowdown in housing transactions of -35% – up to 326.000 transactions in 2020, returning to minimal levels (2012 to 2014). Home buying decisions will be postponed by 6-12 months, and some of the demand will disappear for longer, producing a temporary imbalance between supply and demand.
Funcas | The sectors most directly affected by the shutdown – retail, hotel accommodation, restaurants, cultural and sporting activities and personal services – account for 15% of GDP alone. And they also have a ‘snowball effect’ on the rest of the sectors equivalent to 6% of GDP, according to our forecasts’ update for 2020 and 2021.
A glimmer of hope in the macro scenario managed by Banco Santander’s Research team. Compared to more somber estimates such as those from the Bank of Spain or BBVA Research, the experts at Santander Corporate & Investment do believe in a V-shaped recovery.Banco Santander’s base scenario envisages a 5.2% fall in Spanish GDP this year compared with 8.3% growth in 2021.
Caixabank Research | A fall in the price of oil provides a boost to the economy of countries that are net importers of crude oil, as is the case for Spain. Cheaper oil equates to an increase in the real disposable income of households, such that it also supports aggregate consumption. However, the health crisis that has gripped us following the COVID-19 outbreak will result in this boost derived from a lower oil price not being reflected in the economy, at least for the time being.