The IMF raises its growth forecast for Spain in 2022 to 5.2%, but lowers its forecast for 2023 to 1.1%. Thus, the IMF anticipates that activity will reach its pre-pandemic level at the beginning of 2024, when it expects GDP to grow by 2.4% and at a rate of 2.2% in 2025. As for inflation, the institution estimates an average price increase in 2022 of 8.4%, which will moderate this…
The technicians of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday completed their annual review of the Spanish economy, known as ‘Article IV’, and concluded that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be “relatively weak” in the coming quarters. “Growth is expected to be relatively weak in the coming quarters due to weak external demand and deteriorating consumer confidence,” the IMF stressed in its conclusions on the country’s economic…
Luis Alcaide | Little has emerged from the face-to-face meeting between Xi Jinping and Pedro Sánchez during the G7 meeting in Bali. Only the Spanish Prime Minister’s request to his Chinese counterpart to exercise his best offices with Vladimir Putin to stop his invasion and destruction of Ukraine. Nothing has come to light about the bilateral relations between Spain and China, despite the fact that China is the leading international…
Oriol Aspachs (Caixabank Research) | We already have indications that the economy is losing steam. On the one hand, the Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for both the services and manufacturing sectors show a clear downward trend…Household consumption, the main pillar of the economy (it represents around 55% of GDP), is also weakening.
The president of the Generalitat Valenciana, Ximo Puig, plans to save 150 million euros (3.6% of tax revenue) for 1.34 million Valencian taxpayers (97.4% of the total) with a retroactive reduction in personal income tax, an increase in the minimum exemptions and a 10% rise in all regional tax deductions. The reduction is more ambitious than the PP’s deflations, very focused on reducing wealth, and contrasts with the Treasury’s refusal,…
J.P. Marín-Arrese | The ruling coalition in Spain faces a dim prospect in the coming elections next year. According to the polls, the main Opposition party, bolstered by its new leadership, is poised to snatch a comfortable victory. It seems even close to securing an overall majority, counting on a helping hand from the extreme right and some minor partners. To ward off the danger of a crushing defeat, the…
The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) now expects Spain’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to contract by 0.4% in 3Q2022 compared with 2Q2022, as reflected in the latest update of the real-time GDP trend forecasting model (MIPred) published by AIReF after the publication of the data on the number of workers registered with the Social Security (monthly average) for the month of August 2022. The aforementioned contraction of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter…
Preliminary GDP for 2Q2022 shows +6.3% YoY growth vs +5.5% YoY estimated by market consensus. In quarter-on-quarter terms it shows +1.1% q/q vs +0.4% q/q estimated by consensus. Bankinter’s analysis team’s opinion:Preliminary data better than expected. After the slowdown in 1Q2022, the second quarter has been favoured by the recovery of Services activity and international Tourism. In our Q3 2022 Strategy we revise the projections for the year to +4.0%…
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole world, including Spain. Spain will grow by 4% in 2022, which is eight tenths of a percentage point lower than the forecast published in April. The fall in GDP will be more pronounced next year if Russia’s war against Ukraine continues. According to the report ‘World Economic Outlook’, published on Tuesday, the IMF considers that in…
Juan Rodríguez Poo presented his resignation as President of the National Statistics Institute (INE) on Monday, after months in which the Government has publicly questioned the work and methodology of the Institute.European regulations do not allow for public recommendations by the Government on the indicators to be measured by the Institute. As, for example, those made by the First Vice-President, Nadia Calviño, on the use of the so-called “daily GDP”….