Oriol Carreras Baquer (CaixaBank Research | We are all well aware that the impact of the pandemic has varied widely from sector to sector. Those linked to tourism and leisure have suffered disproportionately. At the other end of the spectrum, some sectors, such as agriculture, forestry and fishing, or public administrations, education and health, have seen their activity increase during the pandemic. In this article, we focus on all the other sectors: the ones which, while having been dealt a heavy blow, have suffered less than those hardest hit. We will call them the «intermediate» sectors.
Luís Pinheiro de Matos (Caixabank Research) | Headline inflation rebounded to 2.2% in April (1.3% in March). The figure is above CaixaBank Research’s forecast (1.6%). On the other hand, core inflation moderated to 0.0% (0.3% in March), a rate not seen since 2014. The new high in inflation can be explained entirely by the performance of energy prices, while the underlying components have not yet shown signs of recovery.
CaixaBank Research | New technologies have indeed favoured the growth of Spain’s labour productivity in the past and that they could do so again in this new technological era we are entering. An initial analysis of the relationship between the degree of penetration of new technologies and labour productivity shows that there is a positive correlation between the growth of the two variables in the past 20 years. In addition, this correlation appears to be more pronounced among economic activities in the services sector.
Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | The crisis caused by the coronavirus, which has been going on for more than a year now, is far from being overcome. But perhaps the worst thing is that a latent pessimism – unjustified but real – all too often obscures data and realities that lean towards a cautious and reasoned optimism. If we add to this the political turmoil, we find ourselves – more so in Spain, but not only here – faced with an extreme confusion that alters reality.
Funcas | The aim of this note is to outline the recent initiatives in terms of direct aid from the governments of Germany, Spain, France and Italy. While in Italy the aid has been extended to the whole economy, as in Germany and France, in Spain it is limited to the sectors most affected (commerce, hotels and restaurants, leisure, etc.). The amount of aid is relatively low in Spain compared to the other three countries, however Spain is the only country that grants a minimum benefit of 4,000 euros for all eligible businesses.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1% in March compared to the previous month, taking it to 1.3%, almost 1.5 points higher than in February (0.0%), according to preliminary data published today by the National Statistics Institute (INE). With this upturn, with which the annual CPI marks its third consecutive positive rate, inflation climbs to levels unseen for almost two years. In fact, such a high CPI rate had not been reached since April 2019, when it stood at 1.5%.
The new 11 billion euros stimulus package for the financial equilibrium of hotel and tourism firms, as well as small businesses, will get the green light from the government at the end of the week. This aid scheme will be backed by three funds to provide direct help for companies : one with aid to affected businesses channelled by the autonomous communities, a second one for the conversion of ICO credits and a third one for the recapitalization of medium-sized companies.
The General Index of Industrial Production (IPI) plunged 6.1% in October compared with a year earlier. This was an increase of more than five percentage points on September’s yearly decline (-0.6%) but seasonally adjusted it recorded a year-on-year fall of 1.6% in October, moderating the September decline by 1.5 points (-3.1%). In monthly terms, and within the adjusted series, the index rose by 0.6%, three tenths of a percentage point less than in September. This growth is well off the double-digit increases recorded in May, June and July.
The Spanish economy has been showing clear signs of structural exhaustion prior to Covid-19. The indicator that summarises this weakness is the stagnation of GDP per capita in relation to the EU average, which has stood at 90% since 2016. This is significantly lower than the 98% reached in 2003, according to a report published by Funcas. The crisis generated by the pandemic hits an economy that was no longer converging with the EU27.
Javier García Arenas (Caixabank Research) | The NGEU European Recovery Fund has a significant budget and could have a major macroeconomic impact on the Spanish economy. The overview of the Recovery Plan presented by Spain reflects the country’s willingness to accelerate investment and outlines a number of relevant areas of action. The specific projects involved and the governance mechanisms for their selection and monitoring are not yet known.