Ana Fuentes | New Spanish elections: the political parties have been incapable of reaching agreement and the Spanish will have to vote again. They will be the fourth elections in four years. A period in which the credibility of the politicians, the patience of the voters and the economic muscle of the country have been worn thin, due to both internal and external factors.
Stephanie Kelly (Aberdeen) | The fragmented nature of the Spanish political system makes it unlikely that any party will secure an absolute majority to govern. Therefore, if a government is going to be formed after these elections – something that cannot be taken for granted given the fractured political system – it will be a minority or coalition government.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | An unprecedented tornado of elections has fallen on Spain in 2019. In the short space of four weeks Spaniards can place their papers with their electoral preferences in at least 5 urns, to elect the Congress, Senate, European Parliament, Townhalls and a good part of the regional parliaments. Spring superelections which will overturn a good part of the structure of the state.
Growth in Spain remains strong but the country can withstand some political instability before the results of snap elections that will be held on 28 April. As reported by analysts at Julius Baer, “polls are indicating a hung parliament, but shifts in party policies could enable both a centre-left and a centre-right coalition government to be formed.” The spread difference between Portugal’s and Spain’s 10-year government bonds currently stands at 30 basis points.
UBS | In this report, we focus on three pivotal questions that we consider crucial for investing in any security in Spain: First, what is the economic outlook for 2016/17, and what are the biggest economic policy challenges that the next government will face? Second, what are the likely scenarios for the outcome of the elections on 26 June? And third, what is the valuation and relative attractiveness of Spanish assets, how will asset markets react to different election outcomes, and what is or is not priced in?
The proximity of the regional elections in Catalonia, due to take place at the end of this month, combined with the uncertainty over the results of this process and its consequences, is leading foreign and many domestic investors to reduce their exposure to the Spanish stock market.
MADRID | May 25, 2015 | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | The conservative Popular Party has its worst election in two decades, losing a big chunk of power in cities and regions on Sunday. Corruption scandals and high unemployment resulting from the economic crisis severely punished traditional parties, which now need to form coalitions with emerging groups Ciudadanos and Podemos.