Javier Ibáñez de Aldecoa Fuster (CaixaBank Research) | 2020 has now been left behind; a year that will be remembered in the tourism industry as the toughest in recent history. In 2021, the fight against the pandemic continues and restrictions on movement and trade are still preventing normal economic activity, hitting tourism-dependent businesses particularly hard. However, the roll-out of the vaccines will provide a turning point once immunity is achieved among the population most at risk. Our projections point to a strong recovery in the sector during the second half of the year, resulting in tourism GDP growing by 80% annually, once again becoming one of the driving forces for the Spanish economy.
The main Spanish hotel companies are concerned about the limited number of bookings for Easter, although they are confident that demand will be reactivated if the vaccination process is accelerated, which would make it possible to have a summer season at least better than that of 2020. With the hopes of reaching a certain level of normality in the second half of 2021- yesterday the “irreversible” UK de-escalation process plan boost tourism stocks- Spain continues to lead the ranking of preferred destinations for travel.
Today Spain is taking another step towards the “new normal” with Madrid, which is the country’s economic driver, Barcelona and Castilla y León, the areas most affected by the pandemic, moving into Phase 1. The remaining 29 provinces, plus the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, are now entering Phase 2. Furthermore, the tourism season is expected to start at end-June for the Spanish population and at the beginning of July for foreigner visitors. The tourism industry accounts for over 12% of Spain’s GDP.
CaixaBank Research | Spain’s boom in international tourism between 2011 and 2016 coincides with a long period of instability suffered by Egypt and Tunisia following the Arab Spring of 2010, as well as the episode of insecurity suffered by Turkey between 2015 and 2016. This reduction in competition for Spain helped its number of international tourist arrivals to rise at a considerably fast rate of 6.1% per year. This beneficial situation for the Spanish market came to an end in 2018 as we explain here.
After seven years of crisis, Spain’s economic model is tending towards what it was in the past. The country ‘s tourism industry is a leader in terms of competitiveness. Furthermore, last summer the sector performed the best it has for a decade.
The Corner | March 31, 2015 | German and Spanish retail sales have improved markedly compared with this time last year. Unemployment figures for the euro zone are expected to fall slightly, while results of EU inflation figures will be keenly monitored in the wake of the ECB’s sovereign bond purchasing programme, launched earlier this month.