Thomas Lehr (Flossbach von Storch) | The US-China trade conflict is keeping markets on tenterhooks. Should we therefore avoid equities? We encourage investors to be courageous. Quality prevails. An argument in favour of long term investment.
US-China trade war
Esty Dwek (Natixis) | Ongoing weakness across manufacturing and trade shouldn’t be a surprise, but service sectors continue to hold up, even showing a small rebound in June. Overall, we expect slower but stable growth around trend levels for the major economies.
Alicia García-Herrero (Natixis) | Out of the key reasons for the cyclical slowdown in 2018, namely the worsening sentiment due to the US-China trade war and the rapid shadow banking crackdown, the former can be considered as an external shock but the latter is self-inflicted.
A more severe than expected economic downturn, the ongoing US-China trade war, eventually a hard Brexit, and unsolved challenges such as protectionism or the lack of confidence in the euro. Here are some trends that will impact markets in 2019.