Clàudia Canals & José Ramón Díaz (CaixaBank Research) | For months now, analysts of the US economy have been debating the labour market’s difficulty in returning to pre-pandemic levels, despite GDP having done so back in Q2 2021. It is surprising that one of the world’s most flexible labour markets is taking so long to regain normality, especially when compared to what is going on in countries such as Spain,…
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | The catastrophe following the elections, with president Donald Trump refusing to admit electoral defeat and practically the entire Republican Party supporting him, has confirmed the US is almost a developing country but without malaria. With the US in a political situation of underdevelopment, the management of the economy until Trump leaves the White House, passes to the Federal Reserve. In principle, this is on the outside of political disputes.
Monex Europe | The FOMC kept rates unchanged, extended its swap facility, and added language to its statement emphasizing that the path of the US economy depended heavily on the path of the virus. In our view, outcome-based forward guidance is likely as early as September, when the FOMC will have a new batch of projections, as well as hard data indicating the costs of the second wave of COVID-19 infections.
Anthony Pettinari (Citi GPS) | While we can’t rule out that funding for infrastructure will be included in a new package, it looks far more likely that any package that can be agreed on by the Administrationand Congress will include more money for small businesses, the unemployed, hospitals/health care, and possibly State/Local governments. The good news though is that we expect a post-election comprehensive infrastructure bill that could help propel beaten down state and local economies.
“It would be a mistake to believe that anything US Congress approves will be a definitive solution for the economy, at least in the short term. As for the size that the economic aid should have, PIMCO believes that “an increase in public spending of 4% could serve to compensate for the economic damage in the short term”
Ranko Berich (Monex Europe) | Jay Powell and the Fed have taken the warning financial markets have given about coronavirus over the past weeks to heart and brought out the big guns with a 50bp intra-meeting rate cut. This is a tool that has not been used since 2008, and comes after a serious worsening in the global macroeconomic outlook due to the Covid-19 outbreak shattering previous optimistic assumptions that it would be mostly contained within Q1.
Trade barriers are causing more insolvencies in the agricultural sector, while the retail sector is vulnerable to rising import costs. Crédito y Caución expects the United States to deepen its slowdown in 2020. The Spanish credit insurer expects GDP growth of 1.7%, largely supported by private consumption in the face of weak investment, public spending and exports. Although household finances are in better shape than a decade ago, among companies there has been an increase in debt and a deterioration in their credit capacity.
DWS | The USA is a divided nation. This idea has been repeated for some time in reference to American politics and society. However, since the end of the financial crisis, this division is increasingly palpable also in the economic sphere.
A&G Banca | With a exports still in contraction, although perhaps less than a few months ago, it is the American consumer who has sustained the global cycle.
Pablo Pardo (Washington) | Ken Fisher is a curious multi-millionaire, who talks in plain language and loves the media. At 69, he is retired from the day-to-day management of his fund, Fisher Investments, which holds more than 100 billion dollars in management, and seems to be enjoying himself as a columnist in, among other media, the dailies Financial Times and USA Today and the weekly Forbes, where he sets out his ideas about markets in a plain language easily understood by everyone. And he does not hesitate to runs against the current when, for example, he says “I am not a fan of philanthropy”, although, it also has to be pointed out that he has donated millions to protect woods in the US, especially the redwoods, a species of sequoia which reach more than 100m high and are one of the largest trees in the world.