The list of potential outcomes is narrowing, but we may still not have a result today. While some races looked closer this morning, we are down to 6 states that will determine the outcome. Right now, Joe Biden is ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan, which, if Biden holds Nevada, would be enough to put him in the White House. If Biden does not win all three, the scenarios include Pennsylvania, which might need until Friday. We should have results for North Carolina and Georgia today, with both potentially going to Trump.
With the counting still to be completed (some states like Pennsylvania and Michigan will continue to count votes until the end of the week), the candidates are very tied (238 Biden vs 213 Trump) against Biden’s victory that had been discounting the markets. Breaking all the democratic rules, Donald Trump calls himself the winner and asks that the postal ballot count be stopped (about 5 million votes), since it is a “fraud to the American public” and “an embarrassment to our country”.
Vittorio Emanuele Parsi & Valerio Alfonso Bruno | In 1992, Francis Fukuyama published his controversial best-seller, “The End of History and the Last Man,” arguing that liberal democracy is the final form of government for all nations. Almost three decades later, G. John Ikenberry, one of the most influential theorists of liberal internationalism today, in “A World Safe for Democracy” suggests that the liberal world order, if reformed and reimagined, remains possibly the best “international space” for democracies to flourish and prosper. After all, reasons Ikenberry, what do its illiberal challengers like China or Russia have to offer?
The final presidential debate between Mr Trump and Mr Biden was yesterday evening. This final head to head between the candidates before the election on 3 November came after the second debate was cancelled due to Trump’s infection with coronavirus. Despite the chaotic back and forth between both candidates during the first debate, there are notably different views between both candidates about corporate taxes, energy and US-China trade
Escalating tension between the United States and China will encourage volatility as the Presidential Election approaches and measures taken against Chinese technology will be the focus. Investors underestimate domestic policy support for Chinese technology, as well as the political risks to American technology, explains Evan Brown, Head of Multi Asset Strategy at UBS AM.
A stock market catastrophe has been announced if Donald Trump won. However, after the intitial shock, most of European financial places, except Ibex, have closed, upwards. Despite Mr. Trump is a political newcomer we may not understimate his capacity of turning his latest endeavor into a success.
Natixis AM | The two US presidential contenders offer very different programs, and often vastly diverging, solutions. The combination of both would have a number of somewhat contradictory effects that would affect all US citizens.
Deutsche AM | Should investors care about political campaigns? As we argued in the CIO View Special introducing our 2016 U.S. elections watch, it is easy to get carried away by rash campaign promises in the ups and downs of 24-hour news cycles
AXA IM | Markets have reacted to his trade policy proposals, but implications are more far-reaching. A key macroeconomic difference between Clinton and Trump victories is the short-term cyclical outlook, with a more forceful fiscal stimulus under a Trump presidency. This would imply Clinton win (baseline) stronger GDP growth, steeper Fed tightening, a stronger dollar and higher US treasury yields.
New York correspondent Ana Fuentes explains just-reelected President Barack Obama his duties, at home and abroad. The (T) party is finished, it’s time to work.