Hans-Jörg Naumer (Allianz Global Investors) | We still believe it’s quite likely that the world economy continues to grow, albeit weakly. However, in the second half of 2022, the risks of a slowdown in the short-term have substantially increased. A continued heightening of geopolitical crises and the consequent rise in the prices of energy and food, could cause a sharp decline in the European economy, already in difficulty, and even in the…
US labour market
Clàudia Canals & José Ramón Díaz (CaixaBank Research) | For months now, analysts of the US economy have been debating the labour market’s difficulty in returning to pre-pandemic levels, despite GDP having done so back in Q2 2021. It is surprising that one of the world’s most flexible labour markets is taking so long to regain normality, especially when compared to what is going on in countries such as Spain,…
Felipe Villarroel (TwentyFour AM)| The latest batch of NFP data for April showed the biggest miss we can remember in terms of jobs created (266k versus an expected 1m), and taken at face value muted wage pressures as measured by average hourly earnings (AHE). At the same time, the likes of McDonald’s and Burger King were paying people just to attend interviews as they could not fill the positions they needed to operate their restaurants properly. So is this a case of subdued demand in the labour market with companies not hiring, or subdued supply with workers for whatever reason unwilling to fill vacancies?
Agnieszka Gehringer ( Flossbach Von Storch Research Institute) | The labor market consequences of the corona crisis have been unprecedented. Roughly 21,4 million jobs have been destroyed within only two months, almost erasing the 22,4 million jobs created after the Great Recession of 2008/09. By comparison, during the Great Recession 8,7 million jobs were destroyed within the 25 months between February 2008 and February 2010
DWS | Once again, strange things begin to happen in the subprime (that is, higher risk) segment of the US consumer loan market. We can see it, without going any further, in the delinquency rates of credit card balances held by thousands of small US commercial banks. Since autumn 2016, the percentage of delinquent loans (defined as loans with overdue balances for thirty days or more that continue to accrue interest) among these banks has doubled to approximately 6%, a figure higher than the levels reached during the financial crisis 2008. On the contrary, the loan books linked to credit cards of the one hundred largest banks are much more healthy.
Despite weak employment creation data, analysts at DWS point out that the US labour market probably remains too vigorous in general to justify the Fed cutting interest rates.
“If we analyse the data from the last 25 years, there is very little inflation. Underlying inflation in the US has never really fallen below 1% which means that the secular dynamism in the labour market is reducing inflation, via technology and globalisation,” explains Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JP Morgan.
The reflation trade that boosted a rally in global stockmarkets after Donald Trump’s victory has been put to the test in recent weeks with the inflation data failing to deliver the sought-after hard facts. However, commodities as an asset class have for some time been somewhat isolated from the reflation debate
In her speech yesterday to the US Congress, Fed chair Janet Yellen made it clear that rates will remain stable over the coming months, despite concerns over China and global growth. The Fed’s monetary policy has no pre-established direction and, if it needed one, it would be adusted to meet the objectives entrusted to the institution. But the problem is that the market will demand more from the Fed.
LONDON | June 19, 2015 | UBS | There are some striking similarities currently between the US and UK labour markets. The unemployment rates are broadly the same, employment growth is similar, and the level of vacancies suggests continued jobs growth in both countries. Moreover, there are solid signs that pay growth has picked up in both the UK and US.