US monetary policy

A close up of a dollar note

The dollar’s unsettling upsurge

MADRID | March 15, 2015 | By JP Marín ArreseThe markets have discounted an unchallenged drift upwards of the US currency, after the ECB embarked on its ambitious asset-buying scheme. Yet few anticipated the move might come so soon and reach such a rapid pace. As the Euro turns its retreat into a disorderly rout, emerging economies like Brazil are falling under unbearable pressure. The dollar’s swift upsurge has pounded global markets. 


The Federal Reserve was all set for mid-2015. Is that still true?

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas On December 2 2014, Stanley Fisher gave an interview (video) to Jon Hilsenrath of the WSJ. It was notable because Fischer had mostly been quiet, except for a couple of Lectures (not speeches) – herehere – given in international forums.  Six or seven weeks later, is that interview still pertinent? At that point oil prices stood at close to USD 70 and now they stand below 50. Mostly as a reflection of low global AD (here).The global scenario is changing quickly, and not for the better. So maybe Fischer is not so sure anymore. [Image:WSJ]


dinero colchon recurso TC

What if QE operates on the supply side and keeps prices low?

WASHINGTON | By Pablo PardoDo you want a Who’s Who of the Republican talking heads? If so, go to this list. Those are the luminaries that asked the Federal Reserve not to go ahead with the Quantitative Easing in 2010, for fear of inflation and currency debasement. Four year later, inflation is nowhere to be seen, and, according to the IMF, the US dollar has strengthened its role in the monetary system. 


Fed’s baby steps towards tightening

MADRID | The Corner | Janet Yellen spoke about patience in judging when to raise rates on Wednesday, which means no hikes for at least two meetings. The change in guidance was played down by the FOMC statement. BNP Paribas analysts thinks the US central bank wants to prepare markets for hikes but at the same time reassure them. They call for the first hike in September. 

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The Fed’s motto: Mistakes should be repeated!

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | Fed officials have great difficulty in thinking outside the box, ceaselessly repeating themselves. If they stopped to think for a moment they would see what´s very different now from what presented itself ten years ago. And the significant difference is not in the rate of inflation or the rate of unemployment, but in the level trend and growth rate of nominal spending

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Which “austerity”? Fiscal or monetary?

SAO PAOLO | By Marcus Nunces via Historinhas |Matt O´Brien has gone over to the “dark side” writing “Why is the recovery so weak? It’s the austerity, stupid.”: Welcome to Austerity U.S.A., where the deficit is back below 3 percent of GDP and growth is still disappointing—which aren’t unrelated facts. It started when the stimulus ran out. Then state and local governments had to balance their budgets amidst a still-weak economy. And finally, there was the debt ceiling deal with its staggered $2.1 trillion of cuts over the next decade.

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US Interest Rates and the New Conundrum

LONDON | By Michael Gavin at Barclays | Today, we mainly remember the ‘Greenspan conundrum’ as a puzzle about the level of US interest rates in the several years leading up to the 2007-08 financial crisis. But the original conundrum was as much about the insensitivity of long-term interest rates to the tightening of monetary that began in mid-2004 as it was about the level of interest rates.