Ignacio de la Torre | The ECB’s deposit rate, which is now at -0.4%, will move to -0.2% during 2019 and later to 0%. At the same time, during the second half of 2019 the logical thing is for the ECB to begin to raise interest rates. These two factors should fuel a progressive rise in the Euribor from the summer of next year.
US commercial banks are trading at a discount of over 25% with respect to the market as a whole (S&P 500) in terms of PER 2018e. Fundamentals are solid and the Fed’s monetary policy heralds a good performance from their profit and loss accounts in 2018 and 2019.
It’s like a curse. Every time a central bank raises interest rates, it has to retract. Sometimes it’s because the move has been precipitative. Three weeks after the Fed decided to raise rates, oil prices and the Chinese stock market tumbled in unison and Wall Street started a correction. So had the Fed been too hasty?
LONDON | BNP Paribas | Even after a very dovish FOMC meeting…the USD reaction has been muted. BUT the USD has strengthened against the EM currencies…
The FED not only held unchanged its rates in its last FOMC meeting last week. It plunged investors into utter disarray by delivering an extremely dovish message on future action. The prospect of a hike this year loses steam while bewildered markets pull back to the waiting game.
MADRID | February 26, 2015 | By JP Marín Arrese | The FED is back in business after years of loose monetary policy aimed at redressing an ailing economy. With the business climate markedly improving, the time is ripe to raise rates. Yet, Janet Yellen has repeatedly warned against a swift hike, instead emphasising the need for patience until the upward trend is solidly anchored. In her testimony before the Senate Committee, she noted that policy would only cover the next two FOMC meetings, sparking speculation that the move could well start in June.
LONDON | By Rajiv Setia and Anshul Pradhan at Barclays | Developed rates markets rallied globally over the past week, led by the long end, largely in response to the across-the-board underperformance of risk-assets. Figure 1 shows changes in ED-implied rates on the day of the September FOMC meeting, as well as the change from pre-FOMC levels to now.