Christian Nolting (Deutsche Bank) | The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries peaked in mid-June, then fell sharply in July before rising again in August. The decline for Treasuries with shorter maturities was less pronounced in July, causing the yield curve to invert, which many investors regard as a precursor to recession. We forecast that the U.S. economy will enter a mild recession in H1 2023. Whereas growth concerns have been…
Experts at UBP believe that fiscal stimulus or, more effectively, fiscal- monetary coordination presents the most potent upside catalyst to risk-assets.
A recession is triggered when the economy contracts for two consecutive quarters. One or two negative readings about GDP may make little sense. But when it is various key indicators which are beginning flash red for a prolonged period, the image becomes clearer and more significant. In opinion of D. Spence y J. Franz, this moment has still not arrived in the US.
AXA IM outlook for the US economy, which was below consensus back in November, was a herald of subsequent market fears. Since the relationship between the recession risk and the market sell-off goes both ways, the question was whether market events had overtaken the economic outlook and threatened an even sharper slowdown in activity. Now, they have updated our probabilistic model of US recessions.
James Alexander via Historinhas | Every time I see the chart for US unemployment these days it looks like it is time for the trend to turn.