I. de la Torre and L. Torralba (Arcano Partners) | The economist Dornbusch says that “crises take long to arrive than you can possibly imagine, but when they do come, they happen faster than you can possibly imagine”. The events that have affected the emerging countries this summer have proven Dornbusch was right.
David Page (AXA IM) | We believe the US has been using tariffs primarily as a negotiation tool; China appears a special focus. But domestic political motives also appear to be a driver.
According to Julius Baer economists, “despite the perceived escalation of US tariffs quarrels being close to a trade war, they remain tit-for-tat trade disputes.” The missing economic rationale behind the tariffs supports their notion of a pure domestic motivation for the disputes.
As all signs point to a trade war with the United States, should the US impose tariffs on EU steel and aluminum, the European Union has decided to immediately activate balancing measures as an alternative to US tariffs which are intended to take effect on Friday June 1st.
European buybacks seem to be increasing by approximately 25 billion euros to a universe of 420 shares (excluding the banks) with a combined market capitalisation of 8 billion euros.