Keith Wade (Schroders) | Clearly, Japan’s debt is significantly higher than the US’. However, it is stable rather than rising. This reflects the poor position of US government finances before Covid-19, where the budget deficit was running at 6.3% of GDP at a time when the economy was doing well with unemployment at less than 4%, a 50-year low. (In net terms the comparison is less stark with Japan at 180% GDP versus 114% in the US).
Johannes Müller (DWS) | Three months ago, we warned that: “The outlook for the world economy is getting cloudier. Escalating trade tensions could trigger further downgrades.” Sadly, this has now come to pass. In several export-oriented economies, notably Germany and Japan, we had to cut our growth forecasts for both 2019 and 2020. For the U.S., we have left our 2020 forecast unchanged at 2%, but now expect just 2.3% for 2019, 0.2% less than three months ago.
The possible modification of the Dodd-Frank law to create a less regulated market, which Donald Trump wants to implement, could give a fresh boost to Treasuries’ IRR.
There has been a severe downward correction in global expectations in August.
By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | A lengthy series of the risk premium spread (over capital or liquidity) between US Treasuries and BAA corporate bonds tells us several things: 1) that each time there has been recession (gray areas) this premium has picked up markedly; 2) the time it reached the highest point was in the last recession, up to 6%; 3) the 60-year average of this spread is 1.8%; 4) the current figure…
JP Morgan expects that US Federal Reserve will announce that it is to auction between $300bn and $400bn in Treasuries with one to three years to reach maturity, and that it will concentrate 70% of its purchases on seven to 12 year-maturity securities while the other 30% will be on longer maturities. The bank believes that the Fed will carry out these acquisitions within the next 6 months. “The benefit…
JP Morgan expects that US Federal Reserve will announce that it is to auction between $300bn and $400bn in Treasuries with one to three years to reach maturity, and that it will concentrate 70% of its purchases on seven to 12 year-maturity securities while the other 30% will be on longer maturities. The bank believes that the Fed will carry out these acquisitions within the next 6 months. “The benefit…