us treasuries

The interests on the benchmark US bonds rose over 3% in April, for the first time since the start of 2014

Are US Treasuries Turning Japanese?

Keith Wade (Schroders) | Clearly, Japan’s debt is significantly higher than the US’. However, it is stable rather than rising. This reflects the poor position of US government finances before Covid-19, where the budget deficit was running at 6.3% of GDP at a time when the economy was doing well with unemployment at less than 4%, a 50-year low. (In net terms the comparison is less stark with Japan at 180% GDP versus 114% in the US).


The Fed balance sheet and repo facility cannot explain the stock market’s movement in isolation

Risks are rising, but recession in the eurozone is not expected

Johannes Müller (DWS) | Three months ago, we warned that: “The outlook for the world economy is getting cloudier. Escalating trade tensions could trigger further downgrades.” Sadly, this has now come to pass. In several export-oriented economies, notably Germany and Japan, we had to cut our growth forecasts for both 2019 and 2020. For the U.S., we have left our 2020 forecast unchanged at 2%, but now expect just 2.3% for 2019, 0.2% less than three months ago.




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Impact of euro crisis in the US economy

By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | A lengthy series of the risk premium spread (over capital or liquidity) between US Treasuries and BAA corporate bonds tells us several things: 1) that each time there has been recession (gray areas) this premium has picked up markedly; 2) the time it reached the highest point was in the last recession, up to 6%; 3) the 60-year average of this spread is 1.8%; 4) the current figure…


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The Fed’s twist in the words of JP Morgan

JP Morgan expects that US Federal Reserve will announce that it is to auction between $300bn and $400bn in Treasuries with one to three years to reach maturity, and that it will concentrate 70% of its purchases on seven to 12 year-maturity securities while the other 30% will be on longer maturities. The bank believes that the Fed will carry out these acquisitions within the next 6 months. “The benefit…


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The Fed's twist in the words of JP Morgan

JP Morgan expects that US Federal Reserve will announce that it is to auction between $300bn and $400bn in Treasuries with one to three years to reach maturity, and that it will concentrate 70% of its purchases on seven to 12 year-maturity securities while the other 30% will be on longer maturities. The bank believes that the Fed will carry out these acquisitions within the next 6 months. “The benefit…