US unemployment

US labour

Stunned By The US Jobs Report

Michelle Meyer & Alexander Lin (BofA Global Research) | The May jobs report was nothing short of stunning. The labor market recovery started earlier than expected as job growth rebounded by 2.5mn in May. In total, 22mn jobs were lost with a peak U-rate of 14.7%. The quick bounce in job growth reflects the “easy” rehiring. The path becomes more challenging thereaſter, with a long road to full employment.


US jobs data

US Joblessness At 20%?

Ostrum AM | A total of 6.6mn Americans lost their jobs last week. This raises the total of unemployed persons to 10mn since mid-March. The outlook for the next few weeks is dismal. The unemployment rate will increase very rapidly to levels unseen since the 1930s great depression. March non-farm payroll data reported only 701k job losses but the survey is conducted on the week on the 12th day of the reference month hence before the catastrophic claims numbers. April data will thus take account of job losses in the millions.

US unemployment

Stop Talking About Unemployment

James Alexander | Scott Sumner wrote an interesting blog post on his vision of macro. It is a useful way of seeing where Scott stands today. However, we were puzzled. Should unemployment really be the centerpiece variable or should it be stable nominal spending growth at an appropriate level?

Petroleo refineria IrakTC

The curse of cheap oil

WASHINGTON | By Pablo PardoWhy do they call Economics the Dismal Science? In theory, because it is about using limited resources to satisfy unlimited needs. In practice because, no matter what, everything is always bad in Economics. Case in point: cheap oil.  


Dollar’s quick appreciation raises questions for markets

MADRID | By Francisco López | The strength of the dollar –which is in maximum levels and has appreciated by almost 11% against the euro since January 2014, has started to cast doubt among market watchers. Some experts consider that such strong appreciation does not correspond to Janet Yellen’s cautious decisions or to the low inflation expectations at a global level, which leaves room to central banks to maintain loose monetary policies. 


U.S. recovery’s 5th Labor Day… and still counting

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | Unfortunately, there´s not much to celebrate on this Labor Day. I start by showing what to me is the most telling chart of all concerning the labor market and which I believe contains the “seeds of destruction” in so much as it destroys skills and the likelihood of a return to meaningful employment in the future.