ATHENS | By Nick Malkoutzis at MacroPolis | Greece has entered its year of growth and recovery. At least that is how the government, its eurozone partners and a number of commentators have billed 2014. Many analysts and politicians also insisted last year that the country had begun this upward trajectory. In reality, though, Greece’s narrative was far from linear in 2013. There is no reason to believe this year will be a straight story either.
SAO PAULO|By Marcus Nunes| World industrial output and world merchandise trade reached new record monthly highs in October, suggesting that both were solidly above their previous peaks during the early months of the global slowdown in 2008 (by 10.1% and 7.2% respectively), but the real situation is that first indicator has gotten stuck and second registers a much reduced level and growth rate. Therefore, world economy would be still mired in a depressed state.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | The Fed has never been comfortable with QE3; Many thought that QE ineffective; Bernanke felt compelled to clear the path for Yellen… But it has boosted “Forward Guidance” to make up (or more than make up) for the “taper”.
SAO PAOLO | By Benjamin Cole at Marcus Nunes’ Historinhas | Slated to be No. 2 at the Fed is Stanley Fischer, who espouses adjustable inflation-targeting more than the locally preferred shooting for steady increases in nominal GDP (Market Monetarism), who knows?—it may amount to the same thing in practice.
NEW YORK | By Ana Fuentes | As the Fed begins its last meeting of the year, the question is making big headlines and debates in the U.S. this week: Will the central bank start to wind down its $85 billion a month in asset purchases before or after March? The majority of economists were not expecting the Federal Reserve to leave QE before March. But the good data coming from China, the U.S. and Europe might be a game changer. [Video: CMC Markets]
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | This week is tapering week, and we will see the Fed’s first step towards a reduction of the quantitative easing. There is consensus about what the economic data show: every single indicator (except inflation) are more and more vigorous.
LONDON | By Jim McCormick at Barclays | Let’s explore how the start of Fed policy withdrawal will affect asset allocation. From Braclays, we do not see an early start to Fed tapering being especially disruptive for broader risk assets, and we’d expect US equity markets to be more vulnerable than most other risk assets.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | Recently, both Simon Wren-Lewis and Paul Krugman have singled Sweden as a country where the central bank has moved from targeting inflation to worrying about ‘deflating’ bubbles.
WASHINGTON | By Mike Konczal at the Rortybomb blog via The Next New Deal | Everyone has been talking about the recent Larry Summers speech on secular stagnation, written up with force by Paul Krugman here. Gavyn Davies, in his own nice coverage, noted that the Q&A had an interesting exchange about fiscal stimulus between Bernanke and Summers, so I decided to write that up.
BEIJING | By Andy Xie at Caixin | Real reforms stripping speculators of their candy involve limiting government power in China. They are unlikely to come fast enough in this bubble economy.