CdM | The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept interest rates at 2% and acknowledges that “upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified”. However, it states that “the Governing Council remains well positioned to deal with the current uncertainty”. As stated in the press release following the April meeting, the eurozone entered this period of sharp rises in energy prices with inflation close to the 2%…
Link Securities | As announced yesterday by ECB analysts, median inflation expectations in the Eurozone for the next 12 months rose in March to 4.0% from 2.5% in February, reaching their highest level since October 2023. Furthermore, March saw the largest monthly increase in this figure since early 2022, when the war in Ukraine began. In March, the conflict in the Middle East, which has led to the blockade of…
Bankinter | Yesterday, the Eurogroup, made up of EU ministers of economy and finance, approved the appointment of Vujcic, current governor of the Croatian central bank, as the next Vice-President of the ECB. Vujcic, who has a distinctly hawkish tone, won enough support over other candidates such as Centeno (Portugal) and Rehn (Finland). De Guindos’ term expires next May, marking the start of a process of renewal of senior positions…
Link Securities | The ECB’s Financial Stability Report warned yesterday that high valuations in increasingly concentrated asset markets increase the risk of sharp price adjustments. In the report, the institution noted that, since April, global stock markets have reached new all-time highs and credit spreads have remained tight in historical terms. In addition, the ECB warned that market confidence could change abruptly due to a deterioration in the growth outlook…
Bankinter | ECB minutes from the 10/11 September meeting. Conclusions: Monetary policy is appropriate to respond to the inflation environment in the EMU and the ECB is in a comfortable position to wait for more visibility on fiscal and trade policies. Everything points to the cycle of cuts having ended for now, even if US tariffs continue to impact growth and prices: ‘the current level of interest rates is sufficiently…
Bankinter | The ECB’s Wage Tracker shows an expected wage increase of 1.7% for the first half of 2026 against 2.1% in the second half of 2025 and 4.3% in the first half of 2025. Analysis team’s view: Good news for inflation in Europe. The ECB’s Wage Tracker is a tool developed by the ECB and the national central banks of the Eurosystem to monitor wage pressures in the euro…
Bankinter | Lagarde in Jackson Hole. The main messages from the ECB President were: (i) Growth and inflation. She was optimistic about a ‘soft landing’ for the economy thanks to the strength of the labour market and the relaxation of monetary policy conditions. On inflation, she noted that upward pressures still exist, although she expects it to remain anchored close to its inflation target, mainly due to wage moderation in…
Renta 4 | On Friday, the ECB released the results of the stress test. This exercise, we recall, does not establish a pass/fail threshold, but is designed to provide additional information for the supervisory review and evaluation process. The adverse stress scenario has been designed by the EBA/JERS for a three-year time horizon (2025-2027) and assumes a hypothetical worsening of geopolitical tensions, with very negative and persistent trade and confidence…
Bankinter | The European Central Bank (ECB) has announced an update to its monetary policy strategy, adopting a more rigorous and agile approach to major inflationary shocks in a context of growing global uncertainty. The main new feature is the commitment to act ‘especially forcefully or persistently’ whenever inflation deviates significantly and persistently from the 2% target, regardless of the origin of the shock, whether temporary or structural. The aim…
Link Securities | According to the monthly report published by the ECB, average inflation expectations in the Eurozone for the next 12 months rose in April for the second consecutive month to 3.1% and from 2.9% in March, standing at its highest level since February 2024. Inflation expectations for the next three years remained unchanged in April at 2.5%, while inflation expectations for the next five years stood at 2.1%…