ECB

European economy, In Europe 1st June 2023

ECB warns of risks associated with liquidity in real estate and debt market

Banca March| The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to see “vulnerability” in the markets given the new interest rate scenario, which in its opinion poses higher financing costs for companies and households that could trigger a liquidity crisis, given the need for massive asset sales in a hypothetical panic scenario. This vulnerability would be concentrated above all in real estate funds and in the debt market, this being one of…

Relevant News Item 1st June 2023

Eurozone M3 monetary aggregate grows by 1.9% in April, lowest reading since July 2014

According to data from the European Central Bank (ECB), the monetary aggregate M3 in the Eurozone grew by 1.9% year-on-year in April (+2.5% in March) to €16.03 trillion. The reading, which was the lowest since July 2014, was slightly below the 2.0% growth rate expected by FactSet consensus analysts. The ECB also published that bank lending to eurozone households rose by 2.5% year-on-year in April to €6.87 trillion, marking the…

European economy, In Europe 10th May 2023

Philip Lane (ECB) says still “plenty of momentum in food prices”

Link Securities | European Central Bank (ECB) chief economist, Ireland’s Philip Lane, said in a recent speech that there is still plenty of momentum in food prices and core inflation. He also noted that real wages have fallen as inflation has outpaced wages in recent years, but that he believes real wages will recover in the coming years. In this regard, Lane said that he sees wage inflation peaking this…

European economy, In Europe, Relevant News Item 4th May 2023

ECB: the APP reinvestments will stop in July

Annalisa Piazza (MFS IM) | The ECB announced today its decision to hike policy rates by 25bp after hiking by 50bp at its March meeting. Inflation is high and pushing it down to its 2% target in the medium term remains the ECB top priority. However, a slower pace of hiking was not a surprise as current levels of rates are already in restrictive territory and the economic picture for…

European economy 4th April 2023

ECB continues to contradict market expectations with tightening messages

Renta 4 : Today, on a day in which futures point to an opening with little change, the main macro reference will be the number of available job openings in the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) in the US, which is expected to remain high in February (10.5 million expected as opposed to 10.824 million previously), giving signs of a still very solid labour market. This data will…

European economy, European politics 23rd March 2023

European banks: systemic risk dissipates after Credit Suisse buyout by UBS

Bankinter : The chairman of the ECB’s Supervisory Board, Andrea Enria, highlights the soundness of the sector and considers that the shareholder remuneration policy (average pay-out ~50.0% of NAB) is reasonable. Banking rose +4.79% on Tuesday. Positive highlights: UBS/Switzerland (CHF 19.42; +12.2%); Commerzbank/Germany (CHF 10.02; +7.4%), Sabadell/Spain (CHF 1.07; +7.5%), Unicredit/Italy (CHF 17.42; +6.9%), ING (CHF 11.16; +5.9%) and BBVA/Spain (CHF 6.57; +5.4%). Analyst’s view: Sector fundamentals are good (liquidity,…

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European economy 20th March 2023

ECB to help banking sector, if needed, but considers it strong

Bankinter : The ECB raises the reference rates +50 b.p.: Deposit: +3.00%, Director +3.50% and Credit Marginal +3.75%. In line with what the ECB anticipated in February. However, it does not comment on future steps. It revises its inflation forecasts downwards, to +5.3% in 2023 (vs +6.3% previously estimated), +2.9% in 2024 (vs +3.4% previously) and +2.1% in 2025 (vs +2.3% previously). In her subsequent appearance, Lagarde says that upcoming…

European economy, Markets 5th March 2023

Latest ECB Minutes show significant support for +50 b.p. hike to 2.5% (deposit rate)

Yields 4: European markets open higher (Eurostoxx futures +0.5%, S&P futures -0.1%) after a session of less to more on Wall Street, and on a day in which the most relevant will be the ISM services report in the US, which could fall in February (54.5e and 55.2 previously), and where the main focus will be on its price component, with upside risk after the strong rebound seen in the…

450px Frankfurt European Central Bank with Euro 2

Relevant News Item 28th February 2023

ECB in difficult position: facing both uncomfortably high price levels and deterioration in the cycle.

Renta 4 : A flat European opening, in a session in which around 25 of our companies in coverage will publish 4Q22 results and where the macroeconomic focus will be on the first inflation data for February in Europe. On the Japanese side, consumption in January was good (retail sales +1.9% vs +0.4%e and +1.1% previously) but manufacturing was weak (industrial production -4.6% vs -2.9%e and +0.3% previously). Today we…

European economy 9th February 2023

ECB warns Spanish banks to be extra vigilant on defaults due to rate hikes

Divacons / Norbolsa | A total of five Spanish banks are in the ECB’s top 20 in terms of assuming lower capital requirements in what is known as Pillar 2 by 2023, according to supervisory data published yesterday by the ECB. According to Alphavale-Divacons, these are Kutxabank, Bankinter, Santander, Caixabank and BBVA. Kutxabank is the Spanish institution that has received the lowest capital ratio for this year in Pillar 2,…

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