Banca March: The ECB expects to reach the 2% inflation target this year. This was stated yesterday, Wednesday, by the President of the institution, Christine Lagarde, on the X social network. It should be recalled that price growth slowed down last year, even falling below the ECB’s target in September, although prices have picked up again in recent months. The slowdown has allowed the monetary authority to cut interest rates…
Norbolsa | Christine Lagarde has declared that they are very close to bringing inflation to target, while warning that services inflation still requires close monitoring. The other focus of questions is around the impact of Trump’s tariff measures, again coming out in defence of free trade and the danger of such policies. The Governor of the Irish Central Bank, Gabriel Makhlouf, also said that Trump’s policies are unpredictable, and is…
Bankinter: The European Central Bank highlights the solidity of banks and slightly increases capital requirements for 2025. The ECB gives a positive assessment of the sector’s liquidity and solvency position with a CET1 capital ratio of ~15.8% and leverage of 5.8% (capital/total assets). By 2025 it is to increase capital requirements by 10 bps to 1.2% of RWAs (Risk Weighted Assets). Our view: We have a positive assessment of the…
Ben Nichols, Managing Director at RAW Capital Partners | The European Central Bank (ECB) has been signalling for several weeks that another rate cut was imminent, so this morning’s announcement is unlikely to trigger a significant market reaction. With Eurozone inflation falling to 1.8% in September, policymakers appear optimistic about the trajectory of the European economy, though inflation may rise again in Q4 due to base effects from last year’s…
j.P. Marín-Arrese | Headline inflation is markedly dropping in Europe, even if the core one trails behind. Plummeting energy costs have played a key role in reining in prices. Yet, the ongoing Middle East crisis could derail this process. Later this year, the unfolding of tax rebates to relieve consumers badly hit by the inflationary bout will feed fresh pressures. Thus, unless the ECB resolutely cuts rates in the October…
Bankinter: ECB minutes of the meeting of 12 September. The focus in the markets has shifted towards economic growth to the detriment of inflation, which has moderated in recent months. Fears of a slowdown in the US economy have raised expectations that the Fed will cut rates more aggressively than the ECB. This approach has carried over to Europe in the face of a somewhat weaker macro picture than in…
Ben Nichols, Managing Director of RAW Capital Partners | Today’s decision aligned with market expectations, and recent macroeconomic data – such as Q2 GDP growth of 0.3% in the Eurozone – supports the ECB’s ongoing monetary easing strategy. Although inflation hasn’t yet hit the central bank’s 2% target, the Eurozone appears to be on a stable path to recovery, with GDP projected to grow by 1% in 2024. With the…
Link Securities | Slovak central bank governor and European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said yesterday in an opinion piece reported by Bloomberg that market bets on two more rate cuts this year are not ‘completely misplaced’. However, he pointed out that they should not be taken as ‘a given or a reference scenario’. In that sense, Kazimir said that they (ECB) are on the way back…
Peter Goves (MFS Investment Management) | As widely expected, the ECB kept all three of its policy rates on hold at the neutral July meeting. The deposit rate therefore remains at 3.75% following the cut at the June meeting. The central bank still considers prevailing rates are contributing to lowering inflation and that monetary policy is keeping financing conditions restrictive. Future decisions will still ensure that the policy rates remain “sufficiently…
ING | The ECB is weighing sticky inflation and wages with a softening growth outlook, French political turmoil, and more dovish Fed expectations. Cutting again this week is out of the question, and giving new rate guidance is probably an undesirable path too. Once again, less is more in ECB communication, and the impact on rates and FX should be limited As discussed in our full European Central Bank preview,…