Annalisa Piazza (MFS Investment Management) | The ECB hiked policy rates by 50bp and pre-committed to hike by another 50bp in March. The depo rate now stands at 2.50%. Looking ahead, the ECB is widely committed to keep rates in restrictive territory to reach the inflation target in the medium term. The overall communication by the ECB remains relatively hawkish as the policy stance remains restrictive. That said, the market…
Link Securities | European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Friday that “staying the course” is her mantra on monetary policy and urged central banks around the world to do the same to achieve output recovery. Lagarde described 2022 as “a strange, strange year” as the low growth figures seen in the world’s largest economies were “not usual”. However, she expressed hope that “cooperatives, consumers, and state policymakers…
Singular Bank | The ECB revises and determines minimum capital requirements for each lender annually so that, in function of its own funds, it has an established guarantee of solvency. In this respect, for 2023, BBVA will have to have a CET1 ratio of 8.72% (vs 8.60% in 2022) and a total capital level of 12.97% (vs 12.76%). In the case of Sabadell, the CET1 will have to be 8.65%, compared…
Annalisa Piazza (MFS Investment Management) | The ECB is committed to continue to increase rates significantly, at a steady pace and to keep rates in restrictive territory until the medium inflation target returns to target. The central bank announced that it will start quantitative tightening (QT) related to the APP at the beginning of March 2023, with a “measured and predictable pace”, allowing the Eurosystem balance sheet to decline by…
Germán García Mellado (A&G) | Regarding interest rates, we expect a 50 basis point rise for Thursday’s meeting, placing the deposit facility at 2%. We do not believe that Lagarde will specify the steps to be taken for the first meetings in 2023 or detail the terminal rate of this cycle of rate hikes. She will therefore maintain a stance similar to that shown since the post-summer meetings, in which…
J.P. Marín-Arrese | Pressed by a skyrocketing headline and core inflation, the ECB took the boldest step in its history when it raised rates by 75 basis points. Further hikes will follow in a desperate attempt to curb the current price spiral. Will they achieve this goal? For all the bombastic claims made by Christine Lagarde, there is good reason to doubt the ECB might solve such an entrenched problem….
ifo President Clemens Fuest has welcomed the European Central Bank’s decision to raise interest rates. “Better late than never,” he said in Berlin on Thursday. “The 0.75 percent increase is a step in the right direction. Nevertheless, monetary policy remains very expansionary. Over the coming months, further interest rate increases will have to follow. Interest rates are still very low, and private households’ inflation expectations are constantly climbing higher. The…
J.P. Marín-Arrese |Christine Lagarde announced the first rate hike in a decade as an upfront offensive against inflationary pressures. While no one doubts this tightening aims at cutting short the current price race, the claim that it is an early reaction fails to match the records. For more than a year, all advanced economies have witnessed soaring prices. Yet, the ECB dismissed this trend as a temporary mismatch betwen demand…
Peter Goves, MFS Investment Management | A historic decision and the end of an era. No more negative policy rates from the ECB following the bold 50bp hike at the July meeting. Clearly, the ECB remains focused on its primary mandate: price stability. The shift in guidance is interesting and makes the ECB much data dependent as an institution. In turn, it likely means short rates will retain their sensitive…
The ECB confirms that it will remain present in the primary via re-investments. Also that the ESG strategy of the CSPP will arrive by the end of the year. In an explanatory note, the ECB confirms one of the doubts that continued to circulate among investors with the end of the CSPP’s net purchases (today): what its role would be after taking on a leading role in the primary market…