Markets

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OECD revises 2024 growth forecast upwards by 2/10 pp to +3.1%: activity remains resilient

Renta 4: European stock markets open flat on a day that will be dominated by the official US employment report (14:30h), where moderation is expected (in line with Wednesday’s ADP private employment survey and JOLTS job openings), but showing a still solid labour market and tightening in wages (yesterday 1Q24 unit labour costs +4.7% year-on-year vs +4% estimated). Consensus expects 240,000 estimated non-farm payrolls versus 303,000 estimated previously, unemployment rate…


ERT

European companies losing competitiveness in Fortune 500

Emisores| European companies have steadily lost positions in the Fortune Global 500 stock index over the last twenty years and now represent only 15.5% of its components, compared to 31.8% for the United States and 27.5% for China, according to the biannual report An ice-bath for EU leaders. Competitiveness is crumbling: Europe’s business case needs a rebuild drawn up by the European Roundtable for Industry (ERT), an organisation that brings…


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Macro hedge funds outperform equities as volatility rises

J. P. Morgan | At the beginning of the year, both the equity and bond markets were positioned for an aggressive monetary policy easing cycle. However, with core inflation remaining persistent and the US economy proving resilient, markets are now reassessing how many rate cuts central banks will make this year. In an environment where markets continue to be affected by data surprises, we expect to see elevated volatility. In…


Puig

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to coordinate Puig’s IPO before summer

Link Securities| Spanish perfume and cosmetics multinational Puig has completed the banking syndicate that will lead its Initial Public Offering (IPO), expected before the summer, Expansión newspaper reports. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are the banks leading the placement as global coordinators. In second place are Bank of America, BNP Paribas, Caixabank and Santander and in third place are BBVA and Banco Sabadell.


China IPC

China’s October Caixin PMIs point to a near stagnant economy

Renta 4: Opening higher (Eurostoxx futures +0.6%, S&P futures 0%), picking up Wall Street’s gains after the close of European markets and awaiting the US employment data. In the background, China’s October Caixin PMIs, like the official ones, show a slowdown and point to an almost stagnant economy: services 50.4 ( versus 51 estimated and 50.2 previously) and composite 50 (versus 50.9 previously). At the corporate level, Apple’s results yesterday…


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Global net exports suffer largest annual fall in post-pandemic period, down by 3.2%

Banca March : Global trade falls to its lowest level since the pandemic. CPB World Trade Monitor data yesterday revealed the largest year-on-year decline (-3.2%) in global net exports in the post-pandemic period. In terms of monthly rates, the decline was 0.6%. The main reasons associated with these levels are last year’s interest rate hikes in several economies, as well as the sharp deterioration in China’s trade (imports: -5.2%, exports:…


Feijoo Rey

Felipe VI commissions Núñez Feijoo to try to form a government, despite still falling short of the 176 needed to reach a majority

Renta 4| European markets open flat (Eurostoxx futures +0.2%, S&P futures +0.3%), with the focus today on August PMIs and Nvidia’s results and awaiting tomorrow’s central bankers’ meeting in Jackson Hole. On the macroeconomic front, the focus will be on the preliminary PMIs for August. This morning in Japan, the data shows weakness in industry and resilience in services: manufacturing 49.7 (49.6 previously) and services 54.3 (53.8 previously). The same…


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Europe may have to compete with Asia for limited gas at start of autumn, despite high storage levels

Renta 4 : Europe opens higher (Eurostoxx futures +0.4%, S&P -0.1%) after last minute gains in the Nasdaq (+1.65%) and after a session yesterday in which the rebound of the first part of the day in the European stock markets was deflated as the session progressed as there were no specific catalysts, beyond accumulating three consecutive weeks of losses in the main world stock markets.The markets are still waiting for…


China

Negative news from China continues

Renta 4 : Stock markets open lower again (Eurostoxx -0.3%, S&P flat), after negative closes in the US and Asia. As for central banks, Norway’s central bank unanimously raised rates by +25 bps, in line with expectations, to 4%, and anticipated more hikes in September, arguing that inflation is still not under control. A monetary policy direction that contrasts with that of other countries where they have already started to…


eeuu taxis

Watch out for Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey

Renta 4| New day with European futures lower at the open (Eurostoxx 50 -0.6%, S&P flat) after a negative close in the US at the lows and with the US IRR 10 hitting the highest since October at 4.26%, and rising today +4 bps to 4.31%, which is an increase of c.+15 bps since Friday. Noteworthy is the publication of the minutes of the Fed’s July meeting where there is…