The weekend ends with a focus on France, following the resignation of Prime Minister Michel Barnier due to the no-confidence motion backed by Marine Le Pen’s far-right party. According to Le Pen, the outgoing administration’s plan to bring the budget gap down to 3.0% by 2029 was not credible for the country, and a “reasonable trajectory” based on wealth creation and savings is needed. “We want to absorb the deficits,…
BancaMarch: Michel Barnier, Prime Minister of France, is abandoning plans to increase electricity taxes in the 2025 budget. This decision, which would be a concession to the demands of Le Pen’s party, is not enough. The Rassemblement Nationale has the bargaining power to make the government meet its demands, since its vote would be decisive in the event of a no-confidence motion. Yesterday Barnier struck an appeasing tone, declaring that…
Bankinter: Fitch maintained its rating at AA-, but downgraded its outlook to Negative. It justified its decision on the sharp rise in the Public Deficit: it is expected to close this year at 6.1%, far from the limit imposed by the EU, 3%, from Fitch’s previous estimate, 5.1%, and from the 2023 level, 5.5%. They do not expect it to reach the 3.0% target until 2029. Consistently, they estimate that…
Norbolsa | French Finance Minister Antoine Armand commented on Friday that an adjustment budget was aimed at regaining control over debt, adding that the government was closely monitoring how financial markets view the French debt situation. Presenting its 2025 budget with plans for spending cuts and tax hikes worth €60 billion for the rich and big business to tackle a spiralling fiscal deficit, with a target of putting the deficit…
Norbolsa | Leaks continue about the possible fiscal plan to be presented by Prime Minister Barnier. According to Le Parisien, next week he will present a €15-18 billion fiscal consolidation plan, while announcing a two-year delay until 2029 to reach the 3% deficit targets. These plans include extraordinary taxes for high incomes with which it hopes to raise €3 billion, and a further €8 billion to be raised from extra…
Prime Minister Michel Barnier said in an interview yesterday that the fiscal situation is ‘very serious’. As most of France’s debt is issued on international markets, he stressed that ‘France’s credibility must be maintained’. He said that ‘I am not going to increase taxes on the French people as a whole’, but ‘I am not going to exclude the richest people from participating in the national effort that will have…
Banca March: Emmanuel Macron has announced that he will not appoint a prime minister until the end of August, once the Olympic Games are over. The French president declared that ‘until mid-August we must focus on the Olympics’. He also indicated that after that time and depending on the progress of the negotiations, it will be his responsibility to choose a prime minister and entrust him with the task of…
Intermoney | In sovereign debt, the spread between the OAT and the Bund seems to be normalising and currently stands at 66 bp. As we have been explaining from IM, the governing coalition will have little room to expand spending and widen the deficit, considering that Brussels had put France in the excessive deficit procedure. What’s more, the next French government would have to stump up €15 billion in additional…
Matthieu de Clermont Head of Insurance and Regulatory Strategies (Allianz GI) | Amid a hung parliament, should investors hang around? While a hung parliament was expected, the second round of the French election still delivered a shock result: the far-right National Rally was pushed into third place in a result that triggers days if not weeks of negotiations between the parties to form a government. With the most seats, France’s…
In the second round of the French legislative elections, the leading force was the left-wing New Popular Front coalition, which won 182 seats in the National Assembly. This advance prevents a majority for the far-right National Rally – Marine Le Pen’s party – which won 143 seats and would thus be in third place, despite having won the first round. It also opens the door to a possible coalition between…