Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | The crisis caused by the coronavirus, which has been going on for more than a year now, is far from being overcome. But perhaps the worst thing is that a latent pessimism – unjustified but real – all too often obscures data and realities that lean towards a cautious and reasoned optimism. If we add to this the political turmoil, we find ourselves – more so in Spain, but not only here – faced with an extreme confusion that alters reality.
Articles by Joan Tapia
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Joan Tapia | It is vital to maintain a peaceful social climate in the coming months and to inspire confidence in the economic agents, a sine qua non condition for the preservation of employment and investment. That is why the much talked about complete overturning of the labour reform has been postponed and only “the most harmful aspects” have been changed. But the deadlines are running out and the most radical sectors are demanding that sectorial agreements take precedence over those with companies (which would reduce the flexibility of the economy.)
Joan Tapia | Yesterday, the Spanish Parliament rejected, with a large majority the complete amendments to the 2021 budget. It is an important step towards political stability and the possibility of creating an economic policy to fight the crisis. From the economic point of view, the Budget may be substantially improved, but we have the government that we have, PSOE with Podemos. So the accounts for 2021 – in the midst of great world uncertainty – are far from being the worst possible.
Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | The figures of the Spanish economy were terrible in the second quarter. GDP plummeted by an outrageous 18.5% compared to the previous quarter, while the GDP of the euro area, despite suffering the biggest fall since reliable statistics have been available, fell considerably less, by 11.8%. And the loss of jobs in the same period was 7.5% in Spain compared to 2.9% in Europe.
Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | Spain has lost out in the Eurogroup, but only by 10 to 9 and with the vote in favour of the powerful Franco-German axis. It is an honourable defeat that indicates our limitations. Some claim that the result is due to the fact Spain has a government with communist participation, something anomalous in Europe. I think that it is a warning from the medium-sized countries to the Franco-German axis to take them more into account. Spain is not gaining influence in Europe, but it will have little impact on economic policy.
Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | We don’t really know where we stand with regard to this crisis, but it’s clear what we should do. The EU must act decisively to avoid an economic disaster that would affect all its members. Only God knows what will come next.
Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | The PSOE-Podemos Coalition Government has not failed to confront its two main challenges: economic policy and Catalonia. However, now comes the most important issue: to approve the national budget for 2020 for which it needs a vote in favour of ERC. This time the abstention of ERC is not enough, as in the case of the investiture, which was achieved in exchange for the establishment of a dialogue between the governments of Madrid and Barcelona.
Joan Tapia | The latest data indicate that the economic slowdown in Spain is showing some signs of reversing. That is, the slowdown is slowing down and that the economic situation in the coming months may be somewhat better than expected by some of the most pessimistic analysts. The misfortune is that this slight recovery of economic optimism has no correspondence in the political field, as the result of the 10-N elections and the subsequent movements of the parties indicate a very difficult governance.
Joan Tapia | The downward revision of growth in Spain in the second quarter (from 0.5% to 0.4%), following that of the first quarter (from an optimistic 0.7% to 0.5%), and a slower rate of job creation, have disturbed forecasts and the economic climate.
Joan Tapia (Barcelona) | The possibility of new elections in November is beginning to sound the alarm about the ability of Spanish political parties to form coalitions. The Spanish economy is an animal of great strength which, once set going, is resistant and difficult to stop. So said to me a few months ago a distinguished Spanish economist who presides over one of the most respected think tanks.