Norbolsa | German economic institutes last week downgraded growth expectations for the German economy to 0.1% in 2025 from 0.8% expected in September, when considering Trump’s tariffs on steel, aluminium and cars. The tariffs announced on April 2, but suspended on Wednesday, could further drain the German economy and lead to a third consecutive year of contraction, the institutes said, although they did not include them in their economic projections….

Bankinter | February’s Trade Balance and Industrial Production, not yet affected by the new tariff environment. (i) Industrial Production -down 4.0% in February against the 3.6% drop estimated and 1.6% previous. (ii) Trade balance €17.7 billion against €18.5 billion estimated and €16.2 billion previous (revised from €16 billion). Exports up 1.8% month-on-month versus 1.5% estimated and 0.0% previous (revised from 2.5% down). Imports up 0.7% month-on-month against the 0.4% drop…

CdM | Germany’s economic expectations ‘improve considerably’ in March. The ZEW indicator of economic sentiment stands at 51.6 points, which is 25.6 points above the previous month’s figure and exceeding the market forecast of 48.1. The last time the indicator increased so substantially was in January 2023. ‘This optimism is probably due to positive signals about future German fiscal policy, such as the agreement on the multi-billion-euro financial package for…

Banca March | In the new Parliament, which will not take office until 24 March, the far right AfD and the far left Die Linke have 216 seats out of a total of 630. With more than a third of the votes, they could block the easing of the deficit. However, the current parliament has the power to amend the constitutional article that restricts the structural deficit to just 0.35%…

Annalisa Piazza (MFS Investment Management) | Following the eventful discussions and a non-binding motion on immigration approved by the Bundestag last week, the focus ahead of the February 23rd election is now shifting more towards immigration rather than the economy (and its structural problems). Given that Friedrich Merz made it clear that the CDU would not form a coalition government with AfD, a CDU-SPD coalition remains the most likely outcome…

Banca March: In Germany, industrial production surprised on the upside in August. Specifically, the indicator climbed 2.9% in the monthly comparison, the biggest advance since October 2021. On a year-on-year basis, German industrial production fell by 2.7% compared with an estimated 3.8% decline. Still in Germany, analysts’ confidence, measured by the ZEW index, gave mixed signals. On the one hand, the expectations component surprised positively at 13.1 versus the 10…

Intermoney | A rise in Germany’s industrial production in August is likely to do little to counter growing evidence that Europe’s largest economy is stagnating. Industrial production has yet to show a sustained recovery, hit by weak global demand, high energy prices and financing conditions still in tight territory. This will be seen in the year-on-year reading where, despite the slight monthly rebound, we will still see a contraction of…