Link Securities | Expectations (economic sentiment) among major investors and analysts for the future of the German economy worsened in July, with the index measuring them falling from 47.5 points in June to 41.8 points, according to the German ZEW institute yesterday. FactSet consensus analysts had expected a slightly higher reading of 42.0 points. July’s decline was the first drop in a year for this indicator. The decline was mainly…

Alphavalue / Divacons | Germany’s 2024 supplementary budget foresees an increase in previously planned new debt by €11.3 billion to a total of €50.3 billion, according to finance ministry sources. The German cabinet will approve on 17 July the draft supplementary budget for 2024, the draft budget for 2025, the financial plan until 2028 and the economic package. The German government foresees record investments of €78 billion in 2025, including…

Bankinter: Consumer confidence worsens to -21.8 in July versus -19.5 expected against -21.0 previous (revised from -20.9). Analysis: The index that measures Consumer Confidence interrupts the improvement trend of the previous four months in an environment marked by the rebound in Inflation (+2.4% in May versus +2.2% before). This is not a good sign, it confirms the weakness of the German economy, something that is also seen in the latest…

Bankinter : Germany’s industrial production in March was less weak than expected: -3.3% year-on-year against -3.6% expected and -5.3% previous (revised from -4.9%). The month-on-month figure was -0.4% against -0.7% expected and +1.7% previous (revised from +2.1%). Bankinter’s analysis: No market impact after the release last week of German GDP for 1Q2024, which avoided a technical recession by rising more than expected: +0.2% quarter-on-quarter versus -0.5% quarter-on-quarter against -0.5% quarter-on-quarter…

In an international comparison of business locations, economics professors gave Germany a grade of just 3.4 (on a scale of 1 to 6, where 1 is the best score). This is according to the latest ifo Institute Economists Panel. A grade of 3 was awarded by 38 percent of respondents, 20 percent gave a 2, 17 percent a 4, and 20 percent a 5. “This poor result is quite worrying…

Bankinter : The German government has improved its growth estimates for 2024. It revises upwards by one tenth of a percentage point to +0.3% YoY (vs +0.2% prev.) the GDP growth expected this year. Maintains the estimate of +1.0% for 2025. Analysis: Positive news. The German government expects both consumption and industrial activity to perform better than estimated this year. The good evolution of inflation (+2.2% in March), the likely…

Norbolsa| Germany recorded a €2.29 billion deficit in international electricity trade last year, driven by the closure of its last nuclear power plant and cheaper foreign energy imports. Germany imported electricity at a cost of €5.7 billion in 2023, offset by export revenues of €3.5 billion, pushing Europe’s largest economy into a negative electricity trade balance for the first time in years. Germany switched off its last three nuclear power…

Bankinter: The German Trade Balance surprises on the upside and rebounds again in the month – Trade Balance (January): €27.5bn versus €21bn expected and €22.4bn previous (revised from €22.2bn); Exports: +6.3% month-on-month against +1.5% expected and -4.2% previous (revised from -4.6%); Imports: +3.6% compared to +1.8% expected and -6.5% previous (revised from -6.7%). Assessment: Both components, Exports and Imports, beat expectations in January. However, this improvement is the result of…

Bankinter : Trade Balance (Dec): €22.2bn versus €19bn expected against €20.8bn previous (revised from €20.4bn). Exports -4.6% versus -2.8% expected versus +3.5% previous. Imports -6.7% versus -1.9% expected versus +1.5% previous. Assessment: The improvement in the trade surplus stems from a sharp drop in imports in the month, reflecting the weakness of the country’s domestic demand. 4Q23 GDP contracted -0.3% year-on-year (versus +0.0% in 3Q23) resulting in a -0.3% year-on-year…