Germany

alemania ampelmann

German investor confidence plummets after ‘Liberation Day’ to -14 points in April, from 51.6 previously

CdM | German investor confidence has worsened significantly in April as a result of “erratic changes” in US trade policy, according to the Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), reports Europa Press this morning. Specifically, the German investor confidence figure stood at -14 points in April, compared to 51.6 in the previous month, which is the worst reading of the index since July 2023, after suffering the biggest monthly…


Alemania Economía

Germany to grow 0.1% in 2025 from 0.8% expected in September, German economic institutes say

Norbolsa | German economic institutes last week downgraded growth expectations for the German economy to 0.1% in 2025 from 0.8% expected in September, when considering Trump’s tariffs on steel, aluminium and cars. The tariffs announced on April 2, but suspended on Wednesday, could further drain the German economy and lead to a third consecutive year of contraction, the institutes said, although they did not include them in their economic projections….


Alemania PIB

Germany’s February trade balance stands at €17.7 billion

Bankinter | February’s Trade Balance and Industrial Production, not yet affected by the new tariff environment. (i) Industrial Production -down 4.0% in February against the 3.6% drop estimated and 1.6% previous. (ii) Trade balance €17.7 billion against €18.5 billion estimated and €16.2 billion previous (revised from €16 billion). Exports up 1.8% month-on-month versus 1.5% estimated and 0.0% previous (revised from 2.5% down). Imports up 0.7% month-on-month against the 0.4% drop…


Alemania IPC

Inflation in Europe: preliminary data in Germany eases one-tenth in March to 2.2% year-on-year, Portugal from 2.4% to 1.9%

Bankinter | Inflation (preliminary data) in Germany eases one-tenth in March to 2.2% (versus expected 2.2% versus previous 2.3%). Today the EMU CPI was published, standing at +2.2% versus the previous +2.3%. For now, inflation is improving in Germany, Spain (+2.3% versus +3.0% previously) and Portugal (+1.9% versus 2.4% previously), remains stable in France (+0.8%) and is picking up in Italy (+2.0% versus +1.6% previously). Indeed, in Portugal, the preliminary…


Alemania PIB

ZEW index economic expectations for Germany ‘improve considerably’ in March

CdM | Germany’s economic expectations ‘improve considerably’ in March. The ZEW indicator of economic sentiment stands at 51.6 points, which is 25.6 points above the previous month’s figure and exceeding the market forecast of 48.1. The last time the indicator increased so substantially was in January 2023. ‘This optimism is probably due to positive signals about future German fiscal policy, such as the agreement on the multi-billion-euro financial package for…


alemania CDU Merz

Merz’s first proposals: dissolution of debt ceiling and special defence fund of €200 billion

Banca March | In the new Parliament, which will not take office until 24 March, the far right AfD and the far left Die Linke have 216 seats out of a total of 630. With more than a third of the votes, they could block the easing of the deficit. However, the current parliament has the power to amend the constitutional article that restricts the structural deficit to just 0.35%…


Germany

German election: a CDU-SPD coalition still baseline with ‘fatter’ tail risks at the margin

Annalisa Piazza (MFS Investment Management) | Following the eventful discussions and a non-binding motion on immigration approved by the Bundestag last week, the focus ahead of the February 23rd election is now shifting more towards immigration rather than the economy (and its structural problems). Given that Friedrich Merz made it clear that the CDU would not form a coalition government with AfD, a CDU-SPD coalition remains the most likely outcome…


alemania reichstang

Germany’s October ZEW index surprises on downside with 7.4 points vs. 13.1 previously, while EU index declines to 12.5 from 20.1 previously

Link Securities | The ZEW institute published yesterday that its index measuring sentiment about Germany’s economy among major investors and analysts declined in November to 7.4 points from 13.1 points in October, also below the 13.3 points expected by FactSet’s consensus of analysts. This was negatively influenced by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election and the collapse of the German coalition government. The index measuring their perception of…


Alemania industria

German industrial production falls by 2.7% in August compared with 3.8% drop estimated

Banca March: In Germany, industrial production surprised on the upside in August. Specifically, the indicator climbed 2.9% in the monthly comparison, the biggest advance since October 2021. On a year-on-year basis, German industrial production fell by 2.7% compared with an estimated 3.8% decline. Still in Germany, analysts’ confidence, measured by the ZEW index, gave mixed signals. On the one hand, the expectations component surprised positively at 13.1 versus the 10…


Alemania Exportaciones

Germany stagnating: industrial production data year-on-year to contract by 4%

Intermoney | A rise in Germany’s industrial production in August is likely to do little to counter growing evidence that Europe’s largest economy is stagnating. Industrial production has yet to show a sustained recovery, hit by weak global demand, high energy prices and financing conditions still in tight territory. This will be seen in the year-on-year reading where, despite the slight monthly rebound, we will still see a contraction of…