Morgan Stanley | The probability of recession especially in the US has increased for most investors in recent weeks. Indeed, our analyst Ellen Zentner has revised her growth estimates downwards (on a 4Q/4Q basis): -10bps for 2023 (to 0.3%) and -20bps in 2024 (to 1%). Even in the case of avoiding technical recession, the impact on the labour market would be unavoidable: the macro team expects new jobs to be…
The European Commission has raised its 2023 growth forecast to 0.9% vs 0.3% and lowered its inflation forecast from 6.1% to 5.65% for this year. The note highlights that domestic demand could turn out to be stronger than expected if the recent declines in wholesale gas prices are passed through to consumer prices more strongly, which we doubt, and consumption proves more resilient. In fact, this has had little reaction…
Santander | Calls are growing for a European fiscal programme. Financed by joint SURE-style emissions guaranteed by member states. In this case, to combat the energy and security crisis as proposed in their open letter by EC Commissioners for Economy and Home Affairs Gentiloni and Breton last Monday. Yesterday it was the turn of Von der Leyen, who called for the EU to seek other sources of funding to accelerate…
Renta 4 | The European Union surprised with a new plan that would label some natural gas and nuclear energy projects as “green” investments after a year of debate among the different governments about which investments are really climate-friendly. Specifically, the Brussels text, still in draft form, includes nuclear power plants already in operation and those to be built at least until 2045, as well as gas-fired power plants, which will enjoy the same recognition until 2030.
Julian Marx (Flossbach Von Storch) | Almost two years have passed since the outbreak of the pandemic and economic output in the Eurozone is still below pre-crisis levels, unlike in the US.The ECB envisages a more cautious monetary policy than the dollar bloc (Australia, Canada and the US): real economic output in the US in calendar year 2021 should already be a good two percent above that of 2019. In the eurozone, on the other hand, the statistics for 2021 will probably remain in some cases significantly below the pre-crisis level.
Kiran Bowry | In 2015, the European refugee crisis awoke Germans from a long and comforting slumber that Angela Merkel had lulled them into with her political style. The term “asymmetric demobilization” came to be known as a way of describing the German chancellor’s shrewd strategy of sitting on the fence and thereby winning elections. Merkel weakened her political competitors by avoiding controversial issues and, in doing so, choking off debate. Simultaneously, she adopted popular policy stances of her opponents and demobilized their potential voters.
Claudia Canals and Oriol Carreras Baquer (Caixabank)| Given the importance of investment in intangibles for boosting the digital transition, we wonder what impact NGEU will have on this type of investment. To answer this question, first we estimate the average increase in the relative weight of investment in intangibles as a proportion of GDP in Spain between 1995 and 2017. We then measure the impact that NGEU will have on investment in intangibles, considering in the calculation the carry-over effect that this programme could have on private investment.
Morgan Stanley | The size of the Recovery Fund is very relevant, equivalent to 5% of the European Union’s GDP (10-15% in Greece, Spain and Italy). In contrast to the US, where the fiscal stimulus has been earmarked for more immediate/current spending, in Europe most of it is devoted to future investment with a long-lasting effect over the next 3-5 years. This long term duration is the key concept and the fundamental reason for our preference.
Crédito y Caución (Atradius) |For many businesses around the world, 2020 has been the most challenging year experienced for some time. Global GDP is forecast to contract by more than 4% this year, world trade by about 15% and insolvencies to increase by 26%. Without exception, every country polled in Europe reported an increase in late payments which corresponds to an average two-thirds increase on pre-pandemic figures for the whole region. This would make a bigger downturn than the 2008/2009 recession.
Sean MarKowicz (Schroders) | The economic fallout of Covid-19 has wreaked havoc for income-seeking investors. Across the globe, interest rates have tumbled to record lows and equity dividends have been drastically cut.For example, this year dividends per share are expected to fall by 16% to 36% across the globe compared with 2019, with the UK and emerging markets (EM) among the worst affected regions. This has left investors nursing losses from normally dependable sources of income.