Is Recession Inevitable?
Morgan Stanley | The probability of recession especially in the US has increased for most investors in recent weeks. Indeed, our analyst Ellen Zentner has revised her growth estimates downwards (on a 4Q/4Q basis): -10bps for 2023 (to 0.3%) and -20bps in 2024 (to 1%). Even in the case of avoiding technical recession, the impact on the labour market would be unavoidable: the macro team expects new jobs to be…