Flosbach von Storch | National debt-to-GDP ratios have already reached historic highs. Gross national debt will likely exceed 260 per cent of GDP in Japan by the end of the year, and reach around 140 per cent in the USA and around 100 per cent in the eurozone. Concerns about the high level of debt being unsustainable in the long run are at least theoretically unjustifiable as long as interest rates and government bond yields remain close to zero. This is because zero interest rates allow practically any deficit or mountain of debt to be easily funded.
BOfAML | It is difficult for forward guidance to be credible when the institution is discussing whether any of its tools or targets are likely to be around in a few months. Embarking on a wide ranging discussion about monetary policy targets, communication and tools, with 25 relevant ECB board members, guarantees a cacophony. Volatility lies ahead for sure, we think.
BofAML | We enter the next decade with interest rates at 5,000-year lows, the largest asset bubble in history, a planet that is heating up, and a deflationary profile of debt, disruption and demographics. We will end it with nearly 1bn people added to the world, a rapidly ageing population, up to 800mn people facing the threat of job automation and the environment on the brink of catastrophic change. At the same time, 3bn more people will be connected online and global data knowledge will be 32x greater than today. The social, political and economic responses to these challenges, all heading to a boiling point this decade, will overhaul traditional paradigms.
Jessie J. (Unigestion) | Growth drivers have stabilised considerably since June, following the end of the slowdown that started in January 2018. The “mid-cycle” pause called by Fed Chair Jerome Powell has led to a one-of-a-kind situation: world growth remains decent while monetary policy has become once again incrementally more accommodative.
Igor de Maack (Natixis) | Years of negative rates may well be coming to an end, with a reversal of investor sentiment for bonds over the last few weeks. In fact, the French 10-year rate is now verging on 0%. However, these years will leave their mark in terms of the extravagance of the monetary policies implemented for the purposes of “Saving Private Capitalism”, lost on the battlefield of excessive debt and driven into the trenches of complex finance.
Christian Scherrmann (DWS) | As has been widely anticipated, the Fed is again lowering key rates by 25 basis points – the third step in the current cycle. Judging from the obligatory statement, it seems quite plausible the Fed might be done with cutting for a while. From now on, its main focus seems to be on monitoring the U.S. economy, rather than, say, on pondering whether the current interest rate level appears appropriate, given the current situation. In short, the Fed is once again data-dependent.
Chris Iggo (AXA IM) | The market is trading like it believes the mid-cycle correction story rather than the impending recession narrative. Equity and credit markets are doing “ok” and rates have bottomed for now.
J. P. Marín-Arrese | Once again, Jerome Powell played down the need for monetary easing in the press conference following the Fed’s rate cut decision. His unconvincing delivery led Mr Trump to heap scorn on his uninspiring performance. For once, his bitter recriminations were fully justified.
Niel Dwane (Allianz GI) | The response of central banks to the financial crisis 10 years ago may have saved the world from a devastating depression, but it also created a host of unforeseen effects – from more indebtedness to more economic inequality. Looking back at what we got right – and what went wrong – what lessons can we take away for the future?
J. P. Marín-Arrese | While betting on such firepower helped to ground the recovery, its ability to deliver a sustained boom seems less obvious.