Articles by Ofelia Marín Lozano

About the Author

Ofelia Marín Lozano
Ofelia Marín-Lozano is as financial analyst and CEO at 1962 Capital SICAV. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics and is Professor of Global Business Environment and Financial Analysis in Madrid's Icade Business School.

Value Or Growth Companies?

Ofelia Marín- Lozano | For some sectors there has not been a stock market crisis. However, others – banks, telecoms, oil,… – have in nine months gone from trading at 19x PER to trading at less than 5x. If everything returns to ‘normal,’ this does not seem sustainable. As a example, in Spain, for the price of the largest retailer (Inditex), we have the two largest banks (Santander and BBVA), the largest insurance company (Mapfre) or the largest oil company (Repsol).

The Appeal Of Investing In Banks Is Very Strong: Expectations For Revaluation Are Close To 100% In A 1-2 Year Period

Ofelia Marín-Lozano (1962 Capital SICAV) | The starting point is much more solid than in 2008, when the banks emerged from many years of double-digit credit expansion and high rates. In addition, European banks have significantly improved their equity base, which is double, or even almost triple, the levels reached a decade ago in all their solvency ratios. The ratio of higher quality capital to risk-weighted assets, (CET1 or common equity tier 1) has risen from levels below 6% in 2011 to over 14% today. 

Big firms are growing at a similar rate than the world’s

Ofelia Marín-Lozano | In November we already know the results of the first three quarters of 2019. And, in general, there have been no big surprises. The large global companies, European and North American, have registered sales increases in line with the nominal growth of the global economy, close to 4.5% (3% real growth plus 1.5% inflation).

When Apple seems more Chinese than American

Ofelia Marín-Lozano (Capital Sicav) | Political events have always had a certain influence in the behaviour of financial markets in the short term. Although what dominates in the long term are company results, any uncertainty coming from the world of politics has a cost, and currently there are many uncertainties weighing on the minds of investors.

'Brexitology': we could get to October without clarifying anything

‘Brexitology’: We Could Get To October Without Clarifying Anything

Ofelia Marín-Lozano (1962 Capital SICAV) | 12 April was the deadline for the UK to decide of it was going to leave the EU without an agreement or, on the other hand, seek a new delay. The worst scenario for markets, a no deal Brexit, has been ruled out. The EU have granted the UK a new delay, which ends at the end of October 2019, to see if they can finally come to some kind of conclusion.

US banks vs European banks: Why such a gap in returns

Ofelia Marín Lozano | Why in the last 11 years, an investor in the American banking sector has obtained a positive profitability of 70%, whereas an investor in the European banking sector has obtained a negative return of 60%.



The excessive risk perception in the European stock market

The Excessive Risk Perception In The European Stock Market

Ofelia Marín- Lozano | Interest rates on 10 year sovereign bonds, which are considered “risk free rate”, are at minimum but the European Stock Exchange, the EuroStoxx50 is where it was five year ago, despite the profits have grown by near 60%… Why have they triplicated the risk premium?

The great anomaly of German bonds

The Great Anomaly Of German Bonds

Ofelia Marín- Lozano | The intervention of the ECB in sovereign bond markets stopped the rise in the internal rate of return on the periphery countries bonds, Spain and Italy. But it didn’t stop the flight to what had become the main asset of safety, German bonds, whose IRR continued falling until the nominal returns were negative.

Stock markets skids, the subsequent panic and the downwards spiral,ready for sentence?

European Vs US Stock Markets Or The European Banks Against The US Technology Firms

Ofelia Marín- Lozano | In recent years, one of the most repeated commentaries when recommending investing in European stock markets tends to be: Why should invest in Europe when the US stock markets outperform year after year? In 22 years of history which coincide with the birth of the Euro Stoxx 50, for the first fourteen years the two markets moved almost in parallel. Only since 2011 can a clearly superior and sustained performance by the S&P 500 be observed.