Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez yesterday outlined the main lines of the Shock War Response Plan to be approved today by the Council of Ministers. The plan contains measures until 30 June aimed at cushioning the impact of the crisis on families and businesses. The plan is worth 16 billion euros: 6 billion euros in direct aid and tax reductions, and 10 billion in ICO credits. It has five main pillars:…
Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | Despite the deep economic contraction in 2020, Italian business insolvencies decreased 29% year-on-year. The decline was mainly due to a temporary bankruptcy moratorium and fiscal support. However, with the expiry of temporary adjustments to insolvency law, it is expected that business failures will increase again in H2 of 2021. Looking at the cumulative insolvency growth between 2019 and 2021, Italian business failures are forecast to increase 4%, with further rising insolvencies expected in 2022
Fernando González Urbaneja | The Sánchez government has given changing, confusing, changing and poorly explained responses, always tinged with a colossal self-esteem summed up in the boast that others are watching us and copying us… we are among the best… However, objective data and international statistics do not support this belief; on the contrary, Spanish performance is among the least fortunate.
David Kohl (Chief Economist Germany, Julius Baer) | Lower new infection rates in Europe and a swifter recovery of activity are valid reasons to scale back some pessimism regarding the eurozone growth outlook. The eurozone has ramped up its fiscal response to the corona pandemic. We feel comfortable in expecting for the region a more moderate contraction of -7.2% in 2020.
Is the current economic crisis scenario caused by COVID-19 similar or different to the Great Depression of 1929? This question is answered in this note by John Plassard, investment specialist at Mirabaud. There are major differences between the two situations. Not only in terms of their nature, but with regard to the measures being taken today by governments, central banks and financial markets. That said, if the pandemic were to spread over time, that perspective could change.
Over the last two decades, the Spanish health sector’s percentage of the country’s total employment has grown considerably. In 2000, the number of people working in the health sector barely represented 4% of all those employed in Spain. In 2019, however, this proportion was close to 5.7%. This data is from the Active Population Survey (EPA), which is picked up in a Funcas document. It reminds us that, despite the fact Spain’s health situation is critical at the moment, the country has never had as many people working in the sector as it does today.
Alejandro Arevalo (Jupiter’s Head of Strategy, Emerging Markets) | One might think that emerging market debt has had difficult year, but it’s been quite the opposite. At the time of writing, the major EM hard currency indices have all returned more than 11% year to date.
Neil Dwane (Allianz) | The response of central banks to the financial crisis 10 years ago may have saved the world from a devastating depression, but it also created a host of unforeseen effects – from more indebtedness to more economic inequality. Looking back at what we got right – and what went wrong – what lessons can we take away for the future?
David Davis and Boris Johnson clearly rip apart what appeared to be the makings of a fragile Brexit ceasefire among some of the big players in the Conservative Party. That ceasefire has now collapsed into open conflict and chaos. And while it’s foolhardy to make any firm predictions at the moment, it’s clear that May has a major crisis on her hands.The departures of