Articles by JP Marin Arrese

About the Author

JP Marin Arrese
Juan Pedro Marín Arrese is a Madrid-based economic analyst and observer. He regularly publishes articles in the Spanish leading financial newspaper 'Expansión'.
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Spain is doing well, is it?

J.P. Marín Arrese| Such is the slogan PM Pedro Sánchez trumpets time and again when confronted with any topic concerning the Spanish economy. Former VP Nadia Calviño used to provide a more reasoned approach than this self-complacent appraisal. Growth, while modest, ranks higher than other European countries, fuelling reasonable employment rates even in a sluggish environment. Prices, little by little, are coming under control. Excessive public deficit and indebtedness are…

Just Sanchez

Looking beyond the investiture in Spain

J. P. Marín-Arrese | The only thing that seems to matter is the investiture. An understandable priority when opening the key to power and its corollary of favours, perks and positions. It is no coincidence that in politics one is there to get into the official car, a vocation that is consubstantial to this profession, since the purpose of all training lies in holding command of the office. Everything suggests,…

Federal Reserve

Rate hikes cannot curb inflation

J.P. Marín-Arrese | The Fed kept rates on hold this week. Yet, Jerome Powell shattered hopes they had reached a ceiling, announcing in the press conference that an extra hike was in the pipeline before the year-end. Inflation is still running too high and will likely take much longer than expected to match its medium-term goal. Powell was at odds in justifying why rate stiffening has neither cooled the economy…


Harassment of Ferrovial justifies moving HQ to Netherlands

Juan Pedro Marín Arrese explained yesterday in the daily newspaper Expansion that: “It goes without saying that the change of headquarters announced by Ferrovial is bad news for the country. It is understandable that it should cause displeasure in the executive branch. That it should try to dissuade it with good manners is logical. But the relentless harassment that the circles of power and their cronies subject the company and…

spanish PM pedro sanchez

Pointless interventionism

J.P. Marín-Arrese | It is not surprising that on the eve of elections, government coalitions should be breaking up, with each partner distancing itself from its former allies in an attempt to improve its election results. What is surprising in our country is the deliberate intention of publicly banging each other’s heads together while at the same time pretending not to get out of the official car. It is understandable…

Jerome Powell

Powell’s dovish hints water down Fed’s stance

J.P. Marín-Arrese |  The Fed’s message was tough enough, warning that the hiking cycle will go on unabated, even if it loses some steam, until inflation comes fully under control. The markets expected the quarter per cent rise in the Federal funds would prompt Powell to offset such a slowdown with a hawkish performance. Yet, in the press conference, he provided enough dovish hints to send the stocks bouncing back…


Drifting from ‘No is No’ to ‘Yes is Yes’

J.P. Marín-Arrese | When the Spanish elections in 2016 delivered a hung Parliament, Pedro Sánchez stubbornly challenged the only potential right-wing candidacy able to set up a minority Government. His resistance led to a protracted stalemate, leaving another fresh poll as the only way out. Fearing a crushing defeat in that bid, the Socialist party ousted Sánchez and allowed Mariano Rajoy to snatch the Premiership. Only a handful of loyal…

Federal Reserve

Jobs and growth data won’t deter the Fed’s resolve

J.P. Marín-Arrese | Last Friday, Wall Street jumped on employment and services data. Jobs openings, while better than expected, signalled a downward path. The service sector contracted for the first time till 2020. The ensuing bullish reaction shows the markets bet the Fed might undertake a U-turn earlier than pointed out in the last FOMC minutes. Investors seem to outwit the Fed, disregarding its determination to keep rates tight enough…

US Congress

The US Congress gridlock

J.P. Marín-Arrese | Kevin McCarthy’s failed attempts to snatch election as Congress Speaker not only signals a severe divide within the Republican party. It may also hamper the ability to run the country. Rebels aim to block the White House agenda, even launch an impeachment against Biden, and seem ready to put the US Government in default by refusing to increase the debt ceiling next October. They will likely question…

global growth

Brave New Year 2023

J.P. Marín-Arrese | 2022 has witnessed an unmitigated rout in shares and bonds. The coming months might turn into additional bleeding as persistent inflationary pressures and robust employment data entice the central banks to tighten their monetary knot further. Other concerns also sap the investors’ risk appetite. China faces harsh times should it prove unable to cope with its endless pandemic stroke. Downbeat sales and profit prospects will soon surface…