Articles by JP Marin Arrese

About the Author

JP Marin Arrese
Juan Pedro Marín Arrese is a Madrid-based economic analyst and observer. He regularly publishes articles in the Spanish leading financial newspaper 'Expansión'.
Jerome Powell

Powell’s dovish hints water down Fed’s stance

J.P. Marín-Arrese | The Fed message was tough enough warning the hiking cycle will go on unabated until inflation is fully under control, even if its speed was poised to slow down. The markets expected the quarter percent rise in the Federal funds would prompt Powell to offset such a slowdown by a hawkish performance. Yet, in the press conference he provided dovish hints propelling the stocks to bounce back…


Drifting from ‘No is No’ to ‘Yes is Yes’

J.P. Marín-Arrese | When the Spanish elections in 2016 delivered a hung Parliament, Pedro Sánchez stubbornly challenged the only potential right-wing candidacy able to set up a minority Government. His resistance led to a protracted stalemate, leaving another fresh poll as the only way out. Fearing a crushing defeat in that bid, the Socialist party ousted Sánchez and allowed Mariano Rajoy to snatch the Premiership. Only a handful of loyal…

Federal Reserve

Jobs and growth data won’t deter the Fed’s resolve

J.P. Marín-Arrese | Last Friday, Wall Street jumped on employment and services data. Jobs openings, while better than expected, signalled a downward path. The service sector contracted for the first time till 2020. The ensuing bullish reaction shows the markets bet the Fed might undertake a U-turn earlier than pointed out in the last FOMC minutes. Investors seem to outwit the Fed, disregarding its determination to keep rates tight enough…

US Congress

The US Congress gridlock

J.P. Marín-Arrese | Kevin McCarthy’s failed attempts to snatch election as Congress Speaker not only signals a severe divide within the Republican party. It may also hamper the ability to run the country. Rebels aim to block the White House agenda, even launch an impeachment against Biden, and seem ready to put the US Government in default by refusing to increase the debt ceiling next October. They will likely question…

global growth

Brave New Year 2023

J.P. Marín-Arrese | 2022 has witnessed an unmitigated rout in shares and bonds. The coming months might turn into additional bleeding as persistent inflationary pressures and robust employment data entice the central banks to tighten their monetary knot further. Other concerns also sap the investors’ risk appetite. China faces harsh times should it prove unable to cope with its endless pandemic stroke. Downbeat sales and profit prospects will soon surface…

Federal Reserve

Uncertainty over monetary tightening hurts the economy

Juan Pedro Marín-Arrese | The Fed is running out of munition after raising its rates substantially. The narrowing margin forces it to slow down monetary tightening. Keeping unabated its previous speed would wreak havoc on the economy. Yet, Jay Powell countered any hope of further softening by delivering a relentless hawkish message at the latest press meeting that plunged stocks into utter disarray. Powell made it crystal clear at Jackon…


Deceptive Tax Cuts

J.P. Marín-Arrese | The Socialist-run regional governments in Spain face dire prospects in the coming elections next year. High inflation, low growth and rising unemployment weigh heavy on voters’ sentiments against the left-wing coalition governing Spain. So they resort to promising tax cuts as the best recipe to cushion their dwindling support. The Valencia Chairman, Mr Puig, has announced a cut in personal income tax, mirroring the national Opposition leader’s…


Taxing Seldom Provides A Winning Ticket

J.P. Marín-Arrese | The ruling coalition in Spain faces a dim prospect in the coming elections next year. According to the polls, the main Opposition party, bolstered by its new leadership, is poised to snatch a comfortable victory. It seems even close to securing an overall majority, counting on a helping hand from the extreme right and some minor partners. To ward off the danger of a crushing defeat, the…

Jerome Powell baffled both the experts and the markets

Is Powell Ready To Do Whatever It Takes?

J.P. Marín-Arrese | While markets mildly reacted to the widely discounted rate hike and the prospect of protracted high-interest levels, the stern message delivered by Jerome Powell unsettled them. Stocks tumbled as he emphasised the Fed’s commitment to tighten its policy as long as inflation remains unabated, flying high above its 2% medium-term target. In short, he sounded ready to do ‘whatever it takes’ to curb the current price spiral….


The Royals

J.P. Marín-Arrese | The UK has delivered a humbling lesson to the Spanish government as its forceful attempts to downgrade the former King Juan Carlos’s attendance at late Queen Elisabeth’s funeral have backfired. The Foreign Minister stepped in, eagerly underlining that State representation confined itself to the sovereign and himself, even consigning Queen Letizia to oblivion in his hasty statement. His frantic efforts to portray Don Juan Carlos as an…