J. P. Marín-Arrese | The only thing that seems to matter is the investiture. An understandable priority when opening the key to power and its corollary of favours, perks and positions. It is no coincidence that in politics one is there to get into the official car, a vocation that is consubstantial to this profession, since the purpose of all training lies in holding command of the office. Everything suggests,…
J.P. Marín-Arrese | The Fed kept rates on hold this week. Yet, Jerome Powell shattered hopes they had reached a ceiling, announcing in the press conference that an extra hike was in the pipeline before the year-end. Inflation is still running too high and will likely take much longer than expected to match its medium-term goal. Powell was at odds in justifying why rate stiffening has neither cooled the economy…
Juan Pedro Marín Arrese explained yesterday in the daily newspaper Expansion that: “It goes without saying that the change of headquarters announced by Ferrovial is bad news for the country. It is understandable that it should cause displeasure in the executive branch. That it should try to dissuade it with good manners is logical. But the relentless harassment that the circles of power and their cronies subject the company and…
J.P. Marín-Arrese | It is not surprising that on the eve of elections, government coalitions should be breaking up, with each partner distancing itself from its former allies in an attempt to improve its election results. What is surprising in our country is the deliberate intention of publicly banging each other’s heads together while at the same time pretending not to get out of the official car. It is understandable…
J.P. Marín-Arrese | The Fed’s message was tough enough, warning that the hiking cycle will go on unabated, even if it loses some steam, until inflation comes fully under control. The markets expected the quarter per cent rise in the Federal funds would prompt Powell to offset such a slowdown with a hawkish performance. Yet, in the press conference, he provided enough dovish hints to send the stocks bouncing back…
J.P. Marín-Arrese | When the Spanish elections in 2016 delivered a hung Parliament, Pedro Sánchez stubbornly challenged the only potential right-wing candidacy able to set up a minority Government. His resistance led to a protracted stalemate, leaving another fresh poll as the only way out. Fearing a crushing defeat in that bid, the Socialist party ousted Sánchez and allowed Mariano Rajoy to snatch the Premiership. Only a handful of loyal…
J.P. Marín-Arrese | Last Friday, Wall Street jumped on employment and services data. Jobs openings, while better than expected, signalled a downward path. The service sector contracted for the first time till 2020. The ensuing bullish reaction shows the markets bet the Fed might undertake a U-turn earlier than pointed out in the last FOMC minutes. Investors seem to outwit the Fed, disregarding its determination to keep rates tight enough…
J.P. Marín-Arrese | Kevin McCarthy’s failed attempts to snatch election as Congress Speaker not only signals a severe divide within the Republican party. It may also hamper the ability to run the country. Rebels aim to block the White House agenda, even launch an impeachment against Biden, and seem ready to put the US Government in default by refusing to increase the debt ceiling next October. They will likely question…
J.P. Marín-Arrese | 2022 has witnessed an unmitigated rout in shares and bonds. The coming months might turn into additional bleeding as persistent inflationary pressures and robust employment data entice the central banks to tighten their monetary knot further. Other concerns also sap the investors’ risk appetite. China faces harsh times should it prove unable to cope with its endless pandemic stroke. Downbeat sales and profit prospects will soon surface…
Juan Pedro Marín-Arrese | The Fed is running out of munition after raising its rates substantially. The narrowing margin forces it to slow down monetary tightening. Keeping unabated its previous speed would wreak havoc on the economy. Yet, Jay Powell countered any hope of further softening by delivering a relentless hawkish message at the latest press meeting that plunged stocks into utter disarray. Powell made it crystal clear at Jackon…