JP Marín Arrese | The markets are betting on Taco, the acronym coined by Robert Armstrong to assert that ‘Trump always chickens out’. It appears to work for the time being, at least as far as trade is concerned. Upon entering office, Trump threatened to wage an attrition war on Canada and Mexico, leading them to utter misery. Later on, he scaled back such bellicose plans to mere increases in…
Juan Pedro Marín Arrese | The sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China do not stem out of protectionism. In Trump’s mind they simply amount to massive destruction weapons aimed at waging wars without casualties. He aims to submit and bully every nation on earth be it a friend or a foe. For all we know that difference doesn’t really matter. The longstanding close alliance between the US and its…
Juan Pedro Marín Arrese | Jerome Powell made it clear at the press conference following the Fed’s meeting that he and his colleagues are in no hurry to adjust rates. They will only move should prices undertake further progress to converge with the 2% target or the economy markedly cool down, sharply deteriorating employment. Carefully avoiding casting comments on the new administration’s policies, he emphasised the Fed’s commitment to independence…
Juan Pedro Marín Arrese | A humble start-up company has dispelled the myth that AI development requires a substantial upfront investment. Spending only $5 million, it has achieved a better product than the leading semiconductor giants. Their shares sharply plummeted as investors realised that pouring so much money into their business proved too risky. A thorough reassessment of the expected returns has wreaked havoc on NVIDIA and other mega firms….
Juan Pedro Marín Arrese | The markets have been battering the UK gilts since Rachel Reeves delivered a disappointing budget in October. A sizeable increase in taxes but proving unable to fill the gap inherited from the last Conservative government did not seem like the best recipe to address the looming stagflation. Fears that ongoing deterioration might force the Chancellor to tap into taxpayers’ money again in a couple of…
j.P. Marín Arrese | The coming year will start on January 20th when Donald Trump becomes president. We already have a taste of what might happen. In a way, Trudeau became the first to prove it as he travelled to Mar-a-Lago in a desperate effort to cajole his guest into dropping plans for crippling trade tariffs. Far from reaching his goal, Trump advised him to switch Canada into the 51st…
Juan Pedro Marín-Arrese | You shouldn’t be too concerned about Donald Trump’s impressive electoral performance unless you rank among undocumented immigrants within the U.S. borders. Even so, despite his upbeat rhetoric, Trump proved less effective in enforcing deportation orders during his previous term than Obama—only a few thousand compared to nearly one million per year under his Democratic counterpart. Foreign observers are often bewildered by the broad public support Trump…
J.P. Marín-Arrese | The corruption scandal involving a former minister, second in command of Mr Sánchez in the Socialist party, not only inflicts political damage. It dents Spain’s credibility as a reliable country. The disclosure of the tepid way an unscrupulous gang managed to ransack public funds and indulge in influence peddling portrays a dismal picture of governance enforcement. Even PM Sánchez proved most economical with the truth at Parliament when…
J. P. Marín-Arrese | Jerome Powell boasts having curbed the recent inflation flare through resolute tightening of monetary policy. While the need to perform rate hikes seems obvious, it seems far from evident it stood as the paramount driving force. For, as is now clear, the Fed delivered negative rates throughout the inflationary bout and only undertook lukewarm efforts to drain the excess liquidity fearing the danger of a credit-crunch….
J.P. Marín Arrese| Such is the slogan PM Pedro Sánchez trumpets time and again when confronted with any topic concerning the Spanish economy. Former VP Nadia Calviño used to provide a more reasoned approach than this self-complacent appraisal. Growth, while modest, ranks higher than other European countries, fuelling reasonable employment rates even in a sluggish environment. Prices, little by little, are coming under control. Excessive public deficit and indebtedness are…