Fernando González Urbaneja | The first reaction of the socialists after the Madrid elections was to distance themselves, almost indifferent, with the argument that Madrid is not Spain. That was the end of it. But it did not hold water. Third in Galicia, opposition in Catalonia, minority in the Basque Country, opposition in Andalusia… and third in Madrid. So much for a governing party. And too much to sustain the…
Articles by Fernando Gonzalez Urbaneja
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Fernando González Urbaneja | Spain has a priority, essential employment problem: high chronic unemployment and job insecurity. Both of these are among the essential causes of a blushing inequality, among the worst in Europe. Then, to complicate the solutions, comes the problem of the high public deficit, which has increased over the last decade as an inevitable inevitability. A debt aggravated by its dependence on external financing with a bias towards instability. At the heart of this debt is the chronic deficit accumulated over the last decade in the pension system, which widens its deficit every year.
Between 2014 (European elections) and the last general elections (December 2019) there have been six elections in which the sum of the bipartisanship oscillated between 45 and 55%. With an electoral support of around 30% of the votes (for the most voted party) and around 50% of the sum of the two parties (compared to more than 70% during the previous forty years) both parties continue to be essential to govern. Both still have a social and electoral base to survive despite their evident management errors.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | Before the pandemic, the Spanish economy showed signs of weakness and exhaustion, which are now considered as pronounced. Spain needs a major modernisation operation to gain productivity, to generate stable employment and add value. And this is not being talked about much. Many decrees but no script, no basic project, no fine print. European funds are important, but knowing how to avoid wasting them, is even more important.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | Economies around the world, and in Europe in particular, have been improving for less than a year, the recovery after the Great Recession peaked, to weaker growth times, including some local recessions (for example in Italy). The causes were known and repeated: trade war, Brexit, insufficient and confused fiscal policies, geopolitical uncertainties. But the “black swan” was missing, the unforeseen that becomes a necessary excuse, the scapegoat, for a trend change and even an end of cycle.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | Critics warn that the first Spanish coalition government will be a weak and incoherent one. That can be an advantage. Some call it a radical government of “communists” who come to resurrect ghosts of the past. If those guesses are not met, the cabinet will get a clear push forward.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | Spanish politics has become a poker game that has to conclude with the withdrawal of some players to abstention (nationalists) and the sum of favorable cards from others (the left) against the rights. Some variations fit, but they are very unlikely. And another failure that would lead to new elections in 2020 would be possible. But that seems like a catastrophic outcome for all.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | Pedro Sánchez, relative winner of the elections (with fewer votes and seats) has chosen the less rugged path to his investiture and to remain in power. He is returning to the original plan, that of the censure vote in June 2017 which allowed him to replace Rajoy. The pact with Iglesias was impossible in the last legislature (from May to June), which passed through months of mutual reproaches. Today it came about in an afternoon; a conversation in the Moncloa between Pedro Sanchez and Pablo Iglesias renewed the model of the pact to remove Rajoy with the argument of creating a “progressive” government, the key word which avoids other more precise words, like a government of the left.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | If governance in Spain was difficult before and leaders apparently lacked the ability of forming stable alliances, now the picture is even more complicated. All leaders except far right party VOX and nationalists have failed, although no one admits it nor takes responsibility.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | In France, president Macron, making good arguments, although not explaining them enough, wanted to raise taxes on fuel and millions of citizens forced him to back down. In Ecuador, President Lenin Moreno has gone through such a trance for the same reason. In Chile, President Piñera is on the verge of eviction for the attempt to raise urban transport rates.