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The Corner

The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.

World economy 2nd October 2023

World Bank downgrades East Asian growth forecasts due to contagion effect from China’s slumping growth forecasts

Banca March: The World Bank has updated its economic forecasts for East Asia and the Pacific in its October report. Although the regions in question have shown a recovery from pandemic levels, the association warns of slow development. While the outlook for China’s output rates in 2023 is maintained (5.1%), those for next year 2024 are down from April’s estimates (4.8% to 4.4%). Likewise, the contagion effect of the Chinese…

In Spain 2nd October 2023

Sovereign wealth funds like Spain

In 2022, these funds carried out 11 deals in Spain, a record number that equalled the peak reached in 2014. These deals, worth a total of up to €2.9 billion, are as large as those recorded in 2009, when IPIC (now Mubadala) acquired its first major stake in CEPSA. The first quarter of 2023 also showed strong activity, especially with NBIM’s collaboration with Iberdrola in renewable energy and Mubadala’s CEPSA…

Relevant News Item 1st October 2023

Iberdrola could recover around €700m of ScottishPower and Energy East acquisition bonuses following EGC ruling

Banc Sabadell: The General Court of the European Union (EGC) has ruled that the tax relief of the corporate income tax deduction for goodwill generated by the indirect purchase of shareholdings in companies abroad, both in direct and indirect acquisitions, is lawful. Thus, the EGC rejects the EC’s arguments that they are unlawful state aid and incompatible with the internal market. Assessment: Positive news, although with limited impact due to…

In Europe 29th September 2023

European Commission recommends reducing fiscal stimulus to lower Fiscal Deficit by 2024

Bankinter: It is only a recommendation because fiscal policy is the competence of each member state, but it has consequences on inflation, monetary policy and bonds. The EC relaxed the Fiscal Deficit and Public Debt targets due to the CV19 pandemic (2020) and the Russian invasion of Ukraine (February 2022), but for months it has been insisting on the need to return to fiscal discipline in 2024. The key date…

In the World 29th September 2023

Mercosur gives EU ultimatum to ratify pact between the two economic blocs

Banca March| In line with international trade, the South American countries are pushing to speed up the signing of a treaty that has been dragging on for twenty years of negotiations and four years of delay since the 2019 agreement was made. The justification for the wait is due to the environmental commitments that European countries are demanding from South American countries. If the signing does not take place on…

European economy 29th September 2023

EMU CPI comes out better than expected, both headline (4.3%) and core (4.5%) rates

Bankinter: Inflation has fallen significantly and more than expected in September. The General Rate stands at +4.3% against +4.5% expected and +5.2% previously. In the month-on-month comparison, inflation has risen more than expected,+1.7% against 1.3% expected and +0.2% previously. The Underlying Rate, which excludes the most volatile items of the indicator, stands at +4.5% against +4.8% expected and +5.3% previously. By components, energy is the one that has most contributed…

In Spain 29th September 2023

Spanish 10-year bond yields above 4% for first time in nine years

The Spanish bond maturing in ten years exceeds 4% for the first time since January 2014 and pushes the entire Spanish debt curve in the longer maturities. In fact, all sovereign debt over ten years is already above 4%. The new high seen in Spanish debt coincides with the publication of new inflation data in Spain. The consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 3.5% in September, two tenths more than…

Relevant News Item 29th September 2023

BBVA to pay a cash dividend of €0.16/share (+33% vs. 2022) on October 11

Norbolsa | The bank has approved the distribution of a dividend of 16 cents/share, +33% vs 2022. The news came a day after Santander’s dividend announcement (+39% vs 2022), although in this case the dividend will be 100% in cash. Thus, the bank’s payout remains in the 40-50% range of its strategy and in line with the objective of remunerating shareholders, supported by the bank’s good results. Shareholders will receive…

In Spain 28th September 2023

Mortgages granted in July in Spain fall by -18.8% year-on-year, average interest rate rises

Santiago Martinez (Ibercaja) | The number of mortgages granted in Spain fell by -18.8% year-on-year in July, the average amount by -2.1% (to €143,412) and the total amount granted by -20.9%. These data are in line with what we have been seeing throughout the year, an expected correction from levels that were considered unsustainable after the emergence of pent-up demand during the pandemic, as well as changes in buyer preferences…

In the World 28th September 2023

US consumer confidence falls more than expected, dropping to 103 from 108.7

Banca March: The most recent US economic data are disappointing. Consumer confidence fell more than expected in September, falling to 103 from 108.7 (which was revised upwards). Moreover, this development was due to an improvement in the current situation reading, but the expectations component deteriorated sharply to 73.7 from 83.3 previously. On the other hand, in the real estate sector, sales are falling, but prices are holding up. In August,…

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