Nitesh Shah (Wisdom Tree) | After staging a recovery for most of Q2 2021, drawdowns in June and August 2021 have set the metal back. Based on our modelling framework, gold looks severely under-priced. Red-hot inflation – currently above 5% – should point to a gold price above US$2000/oz, yet we are currently languishing around the $1785/oz handle. As Figure 1 below shows, our model indicates that in July 2021,…
Nathan Meyer (Capital Group) | With remarkable speed, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated select investment themes across a number of industries. In my view as an equity analyst, nowhere is that truer than the media and entertainment sectors where technological advances and work-from-home trends are rapidly changing the landscape. For exmaple, streaming services such as Netflix, Disney+ and Amazon Video are the primary replacement for traditional pay TV bundles.
Naturgy, the third Spanish electricity company in terms of number of customers, behind Endesa and Iberdrola, is freezing electricity tariffs at the levels they were before the price hikes. This is to prevent users from suffering the uncontrolled increases the market is experiencing. To this end, from 15 September, it is offering to apply a cap of 60 euros per megawatt hour to all customers currently on regulated tariffs. Beyond…
The government’s energy reform is stirring up the whole sector, according to the daily Expansión. Not only the large electricity companies, such as Endesa, Iberdrola and Naturgy, which are already preparing a legal battle. Renewable energy companies are also coming out en masse demanding that this reform be softened by modifying some aspects as the the energy sold outside the daily market, through bilateral contracts (or PPAs, in technical jargon) will also be reduced. These bilateral contracts are the essence of the current development of the renewable energy sector, because they serve to finance it.
China’s country’s largest real estate company, Evergrande, which is on the verge of bankruptcy with more than $300 billion in debt (about 2% of China’s GDP), has announced that it will not be able to pay interest next week. Weak home sales, especially in the last year, have put it in this cash-strapped position. Therefore, the situation is becoming increasingly tense. The group is described by Beijing as a “grey rhinoceros”, i.e., a large company with an alarming debt load representing a systemic financial risk.
CdM | The Government cuts electricity companies’ “extraordinary” income by €2.6Bn: €1.221Bn for Iberdrola, €976Mn for Endesa, €188Mn for Naturgy, €144Mn for Acciona and €71Mn for EDP. On Tuesday, the government approved through a Royal Decree-Law a shock plan to contain the escalation of electricity and gas prices. According to Morgan Stanley’s analysis team the measures – assuming they are effective in Q4’21 and Q1’22- will have a strong impact…
Atradius Research | Using a policy of fiscal austerity and credible inflation targeting, the Russian government has successfully insulated its economy from external shocks, including sanctions. Despite its success, the ‘Fortress’ strategy has also come at a cost: discontent among the population is growing over stagnating economic growth and declining real incomes. If Russia is to raise its income level, more robust reforms are needed to overcome structural impediments to…
On 7 September, El Salvador became the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, which means that companies and businesses in the country are obliged to accept it as a form of payment in day-to-day transactions. However, in this country there are only four Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency ATMs (machines where users can buy or sell cryptocurrencies). The US is the country with the most cryptocurrency…
BBVA Research | The labor market hit the brakes in August, probably driven by both demand and supply factors as a consumption demand slowdown along with increasing health concerns, both associated with the Delta variant, impacted the labor market. Job creation was a major disappointment in August. There is still a way to go to fully recover and the road will likely remain bumpy in the short-term as the Delta…
A total of 13 banks operating in Spain posted net losses in the first half of 2021. This is compared to 15 entities that recorded ‘red numbers’ in the same period of the previous year, according to the financial statements of banks published on Friday by the Bank of Spain. In the first half of the year, ten banks associated with the Spanish Banking Association (AEB), one of the Spanish…