In 2020, people in the UK will spend an estimated £6 Bn on Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, compared to around £5.6 Bn in 2019. However, with restrictions in place due to the COVID-19 pandemic there are many ways that 2020 will look very different to both retailers and consumers. Retailers are trying to manage the shift from shopping in-store to online that has increased during the pandemic. By flattening the curve of the peak of online orders on Black Friday and at the beginning of December for Christmas, retailers are trying to encourage consumers start buying earlier and throughout this period.
Articles by The Corner
Banco Sabadell | The hotel sector is one of the worst off after the irruption of Covid-19. Travel, both leisure and especially business, has almost completely disappeared. This has led to hotel closures and occupancy levels below 20% in some months. The airlines’ perspectives could be a good proxy in order to try to find out what could happen with hotel demand. IATA forecasts that the number of global passengers will be 61% lower in 2020 compared to 2019. Our forecast of a drop in occupancy is -66% in NH Hotels and -67% in Meliá Hotels.
Renta 4 | The reasons for the cease of negotiations would be, on the one hand, the lack of agreement on the exchange equation and the price to be paid, and on the other, the distribution of power. The suggested retirement for Sabadell’s chairman Josep Oliú in exchange for the operation being paid for in cash would not be well received by the ECB, given the risk of BBVA’s chairman Carlos Torres being charged in relation with the Villarejo case. This could then leave the merged group without a chairman. So the ECB would have urged a joint presidency between Torres and Oliú.
The surprising speed with which two small biotech firms have developed vaccines for Covid-19 puts pressure on regulators to make sure they are safe and on large pharmaceutical companies to produce them at scale and “acceptable” profit margins. “Who would want to be in the shoes of the Federal Drug Administration or the European Medicines Authority today given that the health and economic wellbeing of the planet is riding on whether it is safe to approve the BioNTech and Moderna vaccines,” says Olaf Tölke, head of corporates ratings at Scope.
Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | Most businesses in Spain predict the greatest threats to business profitability in 2021 to include maintaining adequate cash flow, the effective collection of outstanding invoices and the containment of costs (reported by 43%,43% and 40% respectively). Despite the uncertainties of the pandemic more businesses expressed optimism than pessimism about the outlook for their customers’ credit worthiness in 2021.
Juan C. Palomino, Juan G. Rodríguez, Raquel Sebastian (ICAE) | Lockdown measures are likely to worsen cohesion in Europe both between countries and, especially, within countries. Our decomposition exercise shows that between-countries inequality will increase in Europe between 2.5% and 4.0%, while within-countries inequality will increase between 5.0% and 12.1%. In general, we find a greater increase of both poverty and inequality in Eastern and Southern Europe than in Northern and Central Europe.
Crédito y Caución (Atradius) |For many businesses around the world, 2020 has been the most challenging year experienced for some time. Global GDP is forecast to contract by more than 4% this year, world trade by about 15% and insolvencies to increase by 26%. Without exception, every country polled in Europe reported an increase in late payments which corresponds to an average two-thirds increase on pre-pandemic figures for the whole region. This would make a bigger downturn than the 2008/2009 recession.
Jinyue Dong, BBVA Research ! On November 15th, Asia Pacific nations including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand plus 10 countries of ASEAN signed the world’s largest regional free-trade agreement which is the so-called Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership or RCEP, with the member countries encompassing 2.2 billion people that is nearly a third of the world’s population and USD 26.2 trillion GDP as around 1/3 of the world GDP as well as 1/3 of world’s total trade volume. Top officials from 15 nations inked the RCEP nearly a decade in the making on the final day of the 37th ASEAN Summit hosted virtually by Vietnam this year. The completion of negotiations is a strong message affirming China, Eastern Asia and ASEAN’s role in supporting the multilateral trade system. In addition, the agreement will contribute to developing supply chains that have been disrupted due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the China-US decoupling, as well as supporting the regional and world economic recovery. Obviously, the signing of RCEP which has experienced eight years of negotiations among member countries has essential implications on Chinese and regional economy…
Berta Ares, General Manager, BME Inntech | BME offers unregulated financial services such as trading, information, regulatory and wealthtech services. Our presence in the region focuses in Mexico, Costa Rica, Colombia and Chile. We are present in all these countries, offering solutions and technology in the Wealth Management industry that range from advised and/or discretionary portfolio management to client relationship management solutions. In Colombia, we provide market access and order routing services for the Colombian stock exchange. Both in Colombia and Mexico, our services include information terminals to access real-time economic and financial information of capital markets.
“Let’s say you’re an insurance company and insuring people close to the sea. In Spain, for example, in La Manga del Mar Menor people have vacation homes in an area where sea levels are rising rapidly. If you are an insurance company with properties in areas such as this, this is a disaster. Or if you’re a global company with farmland in Almeria that requires lots of irrigation and Spain’s rainfall decreases dramatically and you can’t cultivate it, you take a massive hit.” The question of climate change and its impact is not a new one – but Antonio Cabrales suggests that there is a new solution, and it lies with the banks.