Innovation Europe

Euro area aggregate GDP falls by one-tenth of a percentage point in 3Q23, highlighting credit tightening

Intermoney| Euro area aggregate GDP fell by one-tenth of a percentage point in 3Q23, highlighting the transmission of tighter credit conditions. But we should not magnify the stumble of the aggregate if we take into account that Germany, which accounts for 30% of GDP, fell by -0.3% q/qtr. However, we see a series of favourable factors for the EMU countries’ economies to hold up at moderate rates over the coming…


Spain recovers pre-Covid GDP

Miguel Navascués| Although domestic demand has been in decline for two quarters, the recovery in tourism (whose revenues grew 38% year-on-year in 1Q23) and exports (+14%) have finally allowed Spain to recover its pre-Covid GDP in 2Q23. It is the last eurozone country to achieve this (while neither the Czech Republic nor Japan have yet done so) two years later than the average of the 19 most significant euro countries….

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OECD raises economic forecasts for Spain: 2.1% in 2023, 1.9% in 2024

BancaMarch: The Paris-based organisation expects Spain to grow by 2.1% in 2023, improving its forecast for the country by up to four tenths of a percentage point compared to the previous report and in line with the government’s expectations. Looking ahead to 2024, the OECD also raises its forecasts, from 1.7% to 1.9%, although here it is below the executive’s forecast (+2.4%). With these forecasts, Spain will be the large…

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Fitch maintains Spain’s rating at A- with a stable outlook and revises 2023 GDP growth forecast upwards to 1.9%

Bankinter : Fitch maintains Spain’s rating at A- with a stable outlook. Fitch has revised the expected growth for 2023 upwards to 1.9% year-on-year (+0.7pp) reflecting “buoyant recovery in tourism and rising public sector investment. This has offset the weakness in private consumption, which recorded a second consecutive quarterly decline”. It projects a reduction in Public Debt/GDP to 110.4% by December 2024, “driven mainly by nominal GDP growth while primary…


Eurozone GDP grows 0.1% in seasonally adjusted data in 1Q2023 compared to 4Q2022

Link Securities | According to the second estimate of the data, released yesterday by Eurostat, the Eurozone’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.1% in seasonally adjusted data in 1Q2023 compared to 4Q2022. In 42022 GDP had been stable in the Eurozone (0.0%). The reading was in line with the FactSet consensus of analysts. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP in the Eurozone increased by…

Over 90% of foreign companies in Spain expect to increase or maintain their investment in 2020

Spain to finally recover pre-Covid GDP by end of this year

Funcas expects the Spanish economy to reach the level of activity prior to the pandemic at the end of this year after growing by 1.5%, five tenths more than forecast in January, in a year that will go from strength to weakness and which represents a clear slowdown compared to the 5.5% recorded in 2022, according to the CEO of the Funcas think tank, Carlos Ocaña, and the director of…


Spain: upward revision of 2023 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% and 2.1% for 2024

CdM | The Funcas Panel has revised its GDP growth forecast for this year upwards by two tenths of a percentage point to 1.5%, as a result of better-than-expected developments in recent months. For the first time, in this Panel, which closed before the current episode of financial instability, the projections for next year have been requested. The consensus for 2024 anticipates an acceleration of the economy by six-tenths of…

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US GDP revised downward in Q4: growth came in at +2.7% quarter-on-quarter

Banca March : In the US, Q4 GDP was revised downwards: growth came in at +2.7% quarter-on-quarter annualised vs. +2.9% published in the first estimate. Although GDP continues to show sustained growth, the component reading was weak as this revision was mainly explained by a lower contribution from private consumption that grew by +1.4% quarterly annualised compared to +2.1% previously published. Moving on to other data, in the labour market,…

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Japan’s GDP rises by 1.1% in 2022, compared to 2.1% growth in 2021

Link Securities | According to data from the Japanese government cabinet, Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.2% in 4Q2022 compared to 3Q2022, compared to a revised contraction of 0.3% in the previous quarter, although the reading was below the 0.5% growth expected by the analyst consensus, which was in line with the preliminary reading of the figure. Private consumption rose after the removal of tight border controls, and…

IMF outlook

IMF believes Spain will not reach pre-pandemic GDP level until 2024 with growth of 2.4%.

Alphavalue /Divacons| According to the IMF, the slowdown in Spain’s projected growth in 2023 compared to last year “reflects the effects of higher energy and food prices, tighter financial conditions and weaker external demand”. The agency anticipates that activity will reach its pre-pandemic level in early 2024, when it expects GDP to grow by 2.4% and at a rate of 2.2% in 2025. As for inflation, the institution estimates an…