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Spanish recovery glass only half-full

BARCELONA | Joan Tapia| That the Spanish economy grew by 0.4% quarterly in the 1Q14, and by 0.6% yearly is a real green shoot. After several years of recession, GDP is to grow moderately, around 1% in year 2014. However, employment continued falling by 184,000 people, at an annual pace of 0.5%. A slap in the face for those who told the recovery was more intense than expected.

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GDP plus should be GDP less

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | For less bounce! The Philly Fed has called the measure of GDP obtained from “crushing” the usual measure of GDP (expenditure based) and the income-based measure GDI GDP plus

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Spain Prudently Pulls Out of Recession

MADRID | By Tania Suárez | Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced a discreet upward revision of the GDP for the Spanish General State Budget. Thus, the government raised their growth forecasts from 0.5% to 0.7%.

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A “queer policy” indeed

SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | That´s because it can´t be simply called “policy”. Over time the Fed´s economic growth projection has been falling, and after it drops a few notches the Fed introduces something “new” (or “surprising”).

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Italian exports too little for ailing economy

MADRID | By Julia Pastor | Unlike Spain, where the external sector is supporting the economy, Italian exports fell by 1.9% in 1Q13, its worst register from 1Q09. The country’s GDP dropped by 0.6%, and April’s industrial production by 0.3%.


Euro zone: different GDPs, not so much with retail sales

By CaixaBank research team, in Barcelona | Economic slowdown is difficult to stabilise within a context of rising uncertainty that hampers aggregate demand. Economic activity slowed down in the first quarter of the year with negative growth of 0.1% year-on-year, as shown by the detailed figures for gross domestic product in the first quarter. Private consumption continues to adjust, shrinking by 0.6% year-on-year. Gross fixed capital formation has also decreased…

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The Italian elephant in the euro room

MADRID | Unmistakably, the reflection that the Italian economic indicators are mirroring should look very familiar to Spanish analysts. The slowdown wave is reaching core Europe too, by the way, as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development reported this week: the European economies, whether using the ill-established common currency or one on their own, have been found to relate to each other in a more interconnected manner than previously…

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Italy’s GDP worse than forecast

Yields on Italian 10-year bonds will keep under tension after the latest economic data brought investors a negative surprise. The country’s GDP suffered a further contraction of -2.5 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2012: the previous figure had been -1.4 percent and market expectations had pointed at -2.3 percent. Industrial production played a major role, with a -7.9 percent year on year rate that was 2.4…


In China the mountains might not be that high anymore

BEIJING | The option that Chinese economy is in a more severe slowdown than the one officially acknowledged has always been in the international community's subconscious. Economists and experts have been aware of a well known, but not so evident, truth where the usually optimistic official data might not be completely reliable. The debate is open, making it difficult to identify the actual reach of the economic consequences born out…

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UK’s construction sector crumbles a further 18pc, but not to worry

LONDON | The second release of UK GDP figures shed some light on the surprisingly large decline in GDP in the first quarter. The revised figures showed an even larger drop in the construction sector, with -18% or a -1.3% contribution to quarterly GDP growth. Not to worry, said JP Morgan in Monday’s note. Even if the figures are correct, however, the sector only represents 8% of economy (unlike in some other…