Círculo de Empresarios | According to the OECD, in 2024 global debt issuance surpassed $25 trillion, while the global stock of debt exceeded $100 trillion. Following a brief pause during the pandemic, the global debt-to-GDP ratio has recovered its upward trend. More than half of OECD-sovereign and global corporate debt is currently paying interest costs below the prevailing market rates
Link Securities | Yesterday, Expansión newspaper reported that the debt of Spanish public administrations as a whole stood at €1.630 trillion in January, which represents an upturn of 2.8% in year-on-year terms. The amount is the second highest in the historical series, according to data from the Bank of Spain (BdE). In the last 12 months public debt has increased by €50,897 million, while in relation to the month of…
Julio López (Attutude Gestión SGIIC) |Beethoven’s Symphony No. 5 in C minor was first performed in 1808, but gained particular prestige during World War II. The British noticed that the famous opening theme (da-da-da-dum) had the same rhythm as the letter V in Morse code (. . . …) so the symphony became a symbol of victory over Nazism: the BBC always began its broadcasts to occupied Europe with those…
Link Securities| The risk rating agency Moody’s estimates that the Spanish Social Security deficit “will increase significantly” over the next two decades in the absence of new adjustment measures as a result of the ageing of the population and higher spending on pensions that involves linking their rise to inflation, which could negatively affect Spain’s credit rating, currently at “Baa1” with a “stable” outlook, according to the newspaper Expansión on…
Banca March| The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to see “vulnerability” in the markets given the new interest rate scenario, which in its opinion poses higher financing costs for companies and households that could trigger a liquidity crisis, given the need for massive asset sales in a hypothetical panic scenario. This vulnerability would be concentrated above all in real estate funds and in the debt market, this being one of…
Norbolsa | After Tuesday’s meeting, both Biden and congressional leaders were optimistic about a deal to raise the debt ceiling “in the coming days” even though McCarthy insisted that positions are still far apart. For his part, Biden publicly stated that during the negotiations there was a general consensus that “default is not an option” and thus lowered fears of a worst-case scenario.
Deutsche Bank : The recent credit event in the US banking sector has caused considerable uncertainty about the outlook for policy rates. However, financial authorities have reacted strongly. In addition, the US labour market remains solid and inflation is becoming entrenched. In our view, this continues to justify a “higher for longer” official rate outlook. Although two-year US Treasury yields are falling from their cycle high, they remain, along with…
Agnieszka Gehringer (Flossbach von Storch Research Institute) | Governments are increasingly being given new tasks to achieve various economic policy objectives. Looking at the major eurozone members, this report shows that high expectations about the role of the state in solving the most pressing problems may be frustrated by declining productivity of public spending and decreasing government effectiveness. Public spending in the four large euro area Member States, Germany, France,…
CdM | La Fundacion de Estudios Economía Aplicada (Fedea) calculates that if all the Public Administrations make an effort on fiscal consolidation which reduces the structural deficit to the tune of 0.25% of annual GDP, this would leave the indebtedness level at 110% of GDP in 2032. For the autonomous communities subsector, and with a similar structural adjustment, Fedea flags that the policy objective of 13% of GDP for the…
The share of foreign investors in Kingdom of Spain government securities has decreased from the level of 48.79% at the end of 2019 to 41.04%, which is 7.75 points higher. In December 2019, non-resident investors held a portfolio of Spanish securities for an overall amount of 480.094 billion euros, which represented 48.79% of the total debt issued by the State. They now stand at 499.376 billion euros. The strong effort…