debt

Market discounts ECB cut in deposit rate

European economy, Markets 10th April 2023

Fixed income: rising nominal yields should push up real yields

Deutsche Bank : The recent credit event in the US banking sector has caused considerable uncertainty about the outlook for policy rates. However, financial authorities have reacted strongly. In addition, the US labour market remains solid and inflation is becoming entrenched. In our view, this continues to justify a “higher for longer” official rate outlook. Although two-year US Treasury yields are falling from their cycle high, they remain, along with…

World economy 9th February 2023

Expectations about role of the State may be frustrated by declining spending and decreasing government effectiveness

Agnieszka Gehringer (Flossbach von Storch Research Institute) | Governments are increasingly being given new tasks to achieve various economic policy objectives. Looking at the major eurozone members, this report shows that high expectations about the role of the state in solving the most pressing problems may be frustrated by declining productivity of public spending and decreasing government effectiveness. Public spending in the four large euro area Member States, Germany, France,…

Spanish economy 21st December 2022

Spain public debt would drop to 110% of GDP in 10 years if structural deficit falls by 0.25% annually, according to Fedea

CdM | La Fundacion de Estudios Economía Aplicada (Fedea) calculates that if all the Public Administrations make an effort on fiscal consolidation which reduces the structural deficit to the tune of 0.25% of annual GDP, this would leave the indebtedness level at 110% of GDP in 2032. For the autonomous communities subsector, and with a similar structural adjustment, Fedea flags that the policy objective of 13% of GDP for the…

Spanish economy 7th December 2022

Foreigners reduce their holdings of Spanish bonds by almost eight points in three years

The share of foreign investors in Kingdom of Spain government securities has decreased from the level of 48.79% at the end of 2019 to 41.04%, which is 7.75 points higher. In December 2019, non-resident investors held a portfolio of Spanish securities for an overall amount of 480.094 billion euros, which represented 48.79% of the total debt issued by the State. They now stand at 499.376 billion euros. The strong effort…

Companies, Ibex, Spanish economy 21st November 2022

Telefónica: a more bullish message on the telco sector than on other occasions

MS | The general feeling is that Telefónica’s message at the TMT 2022 was more bullish than on other occasions. The most important elements: Telefónica is managing the current volatile macro environment well. 2. A generalised hike in prices: the company’s prices are linked to inflation in Brazil, HISPAM and the UK. In Spain, the message has been very direct, speaking about raising prices to levels of inflation as well…

Spanish economy, Spanish Politics 18th November 2022

Who said fear? Sánchez’s government has already raised the debt by 300 billion euros, which marks a new record high: 1.504 trillion (116% of GDP)

Debt set a new all-time high in September, at 1.504 trillion euros, which represents an increase in relative terms of 0.8% compared to the previous month, reaching 116% of GDP. By administrations, government debt rose in September to 1,329,016 billion euros, 6.8% more than a year ago and 1.15% higher than in the previous quarter, marking an all-time high. For their part, the debt of the autonomous communities fell by…

Spanish economy 16th November 2022

Telefónica reassures the hybrid market

Telefónica has placed a new €750mn green hybrid bond with a coupon of 7.125% and a call option exercisable between August and November 2028. At the same time, Telefónica has launched an offer to exchange any and all of the €1.5bn still outstanding on the two hybrids with calls in March and September 2023. Thus, by redeeming all of the outstanding bonds, Telefónica will reduce its outstanding hybrid balance by…

Companies, Markets, Spanish economy 16th November 2022

Gross issues could grow 8% in 2023 to €830 B; with corporate issues rising 20%, banks up 1%

Santander Corporate & Investment | The rally in the secondary market will boost the primary market. This is a phenomenon which is not new. There are clear examples in 2009, 2012, 2019 and the second half of 2020, where the improvement in the markets translated into increases in gross issues of 115%, 78%, 37% and 17% respectively. We believe this pattern could be repeated in 2023, above all during a…

Spain´s public deficit in 2017 was the highest in the EU

European economy 4th October 2022

The Cost Of New €IG Debt Has Increased By 344bp In 2022 to 4%; Almost Three Times Cost Of Existing Debt

Santander’s analysts explain that the primary is practically closed. The strong market volatility has been accompanied by an almost total closure of the European primary. With only €2.3 billion in the week and with little investor appetite, as orders barely covered the nominal amount of the issue (average b/c of 1.2x). Most of the issues were of a defensive nature, being covered bonds (€750mn) and senior IG debt (€1mm), while…

Spanish economy 24th May 2022

Brussels Warns Spain Of High Debt And Unemployment Risks

The European Commission officially advocates maintaining the suspension of fiscal rules in 2023. However, it warns that Spain is dragging serious “vulnerabilities” with “cross-border relevance” and fears that public indebtedness will be higher in 2026 than in 2021. “Spain is experiencing imbalances,” the European Commission warned yesterday as it released its spring package of recommendations. It warned that its “vulnerabilities relate to high external debt, public and private, in a…

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