Intermoney | In the case of credit, a situation is already beginning to take shape in the US that worries us quite a bit and which will end up spreading throughout the world. Namely, the forced debt sales for companies that lose their investment grade rating. Currently, this would translate into the closest thing to a sale of balances. This situation has already forced Western Asset, a fixed income manager with $460 billion under management, to apply for a waiver for a Fresno County public employee pension fund.
The European Commission (EC) urged the Spanish government to “carefully” evaluate the potential impact of any modifications to the 2012 labour reform and to “preserve “the most positive aspects of it, which “supported solid job creation” during the recovery phase. Citing a recent study from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it states that “the labour reforms adopted in 2012-13 in response to the crisis have played an important role in promoting a rich recovery in employment which began in 2014.”
While Spain’s public debt continues to increase, now accounting for 99% of GDP (1,075 billion euros), private sector debt continues to fall, and stood at 131.2% of GDP in the third quarter of 2019, a level below 133% – the European procedure for macroeconomic imbalances – for the first time since 2003.
Portugal’s political stability and its government’s renewed commitment to consolidate public finances will keep its public debt ratio on a firm downward path, in contrast with Spain and Italy. Portugal’s economic and fiscal adjustment since the crisis has been impressive, says Scope Ratings.
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | Companies and families have continued reducing their debt levels, down to 131.2% of GDP. Ten years ago their indebtedness exceeded 200%.
After issuing €1,62 bn at 5 years, €1,31bn at 10 years and €510 M at 30 years, the Treasury ruled out any further debt issuances in 2019. On the other hand, the net issuance amounted to almost € 20 bn, the lowest figure since 2007.
Alejandro Arevalo (Jupiter’s Head of Strategy, Emerging Markets) | One might think that emerging market debt has had difficult year, but it’s been quite the opposite. At the time of writing, the major EM hard currency indices have all returned more than 11% year to date.
BancaMarch | The European Commission warns that Spain is moving away from the adjustment path and asks for measures that compensate the alignment of pensions with prices.
Nick Malkoutzis (Macropolis) | Over recent weeks, there has been much talk from government officials about a “new Greece” emerging after the July elections. This has been supported by legislation that has already been passed, such as interventions in the way the country is governed, and the draft laws that are being lined up, such as the development bill, which is seen by New Democracy as a bureaucracy-buster that will pave the way for more investment.
A. Menut and A. Tentori (AXA IM) | Italian politics are back at centre stage, with Lega party leader Matteo Salvini unexpectedly triggering a government crisis and making way for what in many ways is yet another spurious coalition. The positive political climate, more European Union-friendly, together with non-negative – although weak – growth should be encouraging for markets.